South Africa Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
SOUTH AFRICA

The South Africa 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 8.905%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

South Africa Central Bank Rate stands at 7.75%, following the most recent adjustment in November 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the South Africa credit rating is BB-.

The current quotation for South Africa 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 174.61 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 2.91%.

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South Africa Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

South Africa Yield Curve
South Africa Government Bonds
13 December 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 months 7.950% +15.0 bp -14.0 bp -65.0 bp 98.11 -0.03 % +0.04 % +0.15 % 1.019 13 Dec
5 years 8.145% -33.3 bp -94.2 bp -75.0 bp 67.60 +1.55 % +4.43 % +3.51 % 1.479 13 Dec
10 years 8.905% -45.3 bp -143.5 bp -115.5 bp 42.61 +4.23 % +13.99 % +11.14 % 2.346 13 Dec
12 years 9.773% -21.1 bp -147.8 bp -112.2 bp 32.66 +2.32 % +17.40 % +12.97 % 3.061 13 Dec
20 years 10.890% -56.1 bp -178.7 bp -154.0 bp 12.65 +10.58 % +37.65 % +31.77 % 7.904 13 Dec
25 years 11.314% -22.7 bp -140.5 bp -119.1 bp 6.86 +5.21 % +36.93 % +30.42 % 14.579 13 Dec
30 years 10.960% -52.3 bp -168.8 bp -147.0 bp 4.42 +15.40 % +57.30 % +48.32 % 22.646 13 Dec
Last Update: 13 Dec 2024, 18:15 GMT+0

South Africa Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Dec 2024 n.a. 7.950 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.145 n.a. 8.905 10.960 n.a.
Dec 2023 n.a. 8.500 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.695 n.a. 9.770 12.160 n.a.
Dec 2022 n.a. 7.740 n.a. n.a. 7.400 n.a. 8.765 n.a. 10.185 11.405 278.5
Dec 2021 n.a. 5.250 n.a. n.a. 5.090 n.a. 7.860 n.a. 9.350 10.625 426.0
Dec 2020 n.a. 3.750 n.a. n.a. 4.530 n.a. 6.665 n.a. 8.735 10.810 420.5
Dec 2019 n.a. 6.000 n.a. n.a. 6.715 n.a. 7.235 n.a. 8.255 10.090 154.0
Dec 2018 n.a. 7.250 n.a. n.a. 5.960 7.005 8.110 n.a. 8.885 9.910 292.5
Dec 2017 n.a. 7.050 n.a. n.a. 7.280 7.575 7.915 n.a. 8.605 9.730 132.5
Dec 2016 n.a. 8.000 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.125 8.280 n.a. 8.925 9.630 n.a.
Dec 2015 n.a. 6.350 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.995 9.275 n.a. 9.770 10.405 n.a.

South Africa Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (7.75%)
3 months 5 years 10 years
30 years 10.960% 321.0bp
10 years 8.905%
115.5bp
5 years 8.145%
39.5bp
3 months 7.950%
20.0bp

South Africa Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BB- positive 18 Nov 2024 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Ba2 - 4 Apr 2022 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings BB- - 16 Dec 2021 outlook upgrade
DBRS - -

South Africa Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 7.75%

South Africa Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 174.61 -4.00 % -2.97 % -24.14 % 2.91 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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South Africa 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The South Africa 10Y Government Bond has a 8.905% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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South Africa 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 787.0 bp -45.4 bp -151.0 bp -149.3 bp
vs China 10Y 712.3 bp -14.1 bp -90.4 bp -27.3 bp
vs Germany 10Y 665.8 bp -31.4 bp -121.2 bp -124.3 bp
vs Spain 10Y 597.1 bp -25.6 bp -99.0 bp -97.0 bp
vs France 10Y 585.9 bp -33.3 bp -130.2 bp -148.7 bp
vs Canada 10Y 570.5 bp -31.2 bp -128.2 bp -108.6 bp
vs Italy 10Y 550.3 bp -19.6 bp -88.0 bp -62.1 bp
vs United States 10Y 457.7 bp -32.5 bp -152.3 bp -145.9 bp
vs Australia 10Y 451.5 bp -15.6 bp -163.8 bp -138.5 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 448.4 bp -33.2 bp -172.5 bp -175.0 bp
vs India 10Y 206.6 bp -37.5 bp -128.8 bp -73.5 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -480.5 bp -132.8 bp -304.5 bp -399.8 bp
vs Russia 10Y -746.0 bp -99.2 bp -266.0 bp -486.0 bp

South Africa Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 10.960% 4.42 13.14 30.58 48.02 65.46 82.91
25 years 11.314% 6.86 15.09 31.56 48.02 64.49 80.95
20 years 10.890% 12.65 20.67 36.71 52.76 68.80 84.84
12 years 9.773% 32.66 39.55 53.33 67.11 80.89 94.67
10 years 8.905% 42.61 49.06 61.94 74.83 87.72 100.61
5 years 8.145% 67.60 71.58 79.54 87.49 95.45 103.40
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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