India Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
INDIA

The India 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 6.845%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between India 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 8 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

India Central Bank Rate stands at 6.50%, following the most recent adjustment in February 2023.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the India credit rating is BBB-.

The current quotation for India 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 84.08 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 1.40%.

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India Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

India Yield Curve
India Government Bonds
12 December 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 months 6.598% -1.3 bp -26.2 bp -37.2 bp 98.42 +0.01 % +0.07 % +0.09 % 1.016 12 Dec
6 months 6.710% +1.8 bp -30.0 bp -46.0 bp 96.80 -0.01 % +0.13 % +0.21 % 1.033 12 Dec
1 year 6.772% -5.8 bp -24.0 bp -44.9 bp 93.66 +0.05 % +0.22 % +0.42 % 1.067 12 Dec
2 years 6.765% -6.0 bp -22.2 bp -44.4 bp 87.73 +0.11 % +0.41 % +0.84 % 1.139 12 Dec
3 years 6.781% -8.7 bp -23.1 bp -46.1 bp 82.13 +0.24 % +0.65 % +1.30 % 1.217 12 Dec
4 years 6.783% -9.3 bp -23.8 bp -46.2 bp 76.91 +0.35 % +0.89 % +1.75 % 1.300 12 Dec
5 years 6.771% -11.8 bp -25.8 bp -47.2 bp 72.07 +0.56 % +1.22 % +2.24 % 1.387 12 Dec
6 years 6.777% -9.8 bp -22.5 bp -49.1 bp 67.47 +0.55 % +1.26 % +2.79 % 1.482 12 Dec
7 years 6.877% -4.2 bp -18.6 bp -35.7 bp 62.78 +0.27 % +1.23 % +2.36 % 1.592 12 Dec
8 years 6.911% -7.9 bp -16.8 bp -42.3 bp 58.59 +0.60 % +1.26 % +3.21 % 1.706 12 Dec
9 years 6.885% -6.6 bp -17.7 bp -43.6 bp 54.92 +0.55 % +1.50 % +3.72 % 1.820 12 Dec
10 years 6.845% -6.2 bp -16.7 bp -43.0 bp 51.58 +0.59 % +1.58 % +4.10 % 1.938 12 Dec
11 years 6.958% -4.5 bp -7.5 bp -40.9 bp 47.71 +0.46 % +0.76 % +4.28 % 2.095 11 Dec
12 years 6.972% -4.0 bp -10.4 bp -42.3 bp 44.54 +0.45 % +1.18 % +4.85 % 2.245 11 Dec
13 years 6.977% -2.5 bp -10.4 bp -38.4 bp 41.61 +0.29 % +1.27 % +4.76 % 2.403 12 Dec
14 years 6.967% -2.6 bp -10.1 bp -41.6 bp 38.95 +0.33 % +1.33 % +5.58 % 2.567 12 Dec
15 years 6.964% +7.4 bp -6.9 bp -45.2 bp 36.43 -1.03 % +0.97 % +6.52 % 2.745 12 Dec
19 years 6.880% -1.0 bp -22.7 bp -53.7 bp 28.25 +0.18 % +4.13 % +10.01 % 3.540 11 Dec
24 years 7.067% +16.7 bp -4.2 bp -40.4 bp 19.42 -3.67 % +0.94 % +9.47 % 5.149 12 Dec
30 years 7.107% -1.1 bp -1.4 bp -37.7 bp 12.75 +0.31 % +0.39 % +11.16 % 7.843 12 Dec
40 years 7.123% -0.4 bp -1.7 bp -36.7 bp 6.38 +0.16 % +0.63 % +14.75 % 15.678 12 Dec
Last Update: 12 Dec 2024, 9:15 GMT+0

India Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Dec 2024 n.a. 6.598 6.710 6.772 6.765 6.781 6.771 6.877 6.845 7.107 8.0
Dec 2023 n.a. 6.900 7.090 7.110 7.080 7.084 7.065 7.093 7.176 7.406 9.6
Dec 2022 n.a. 6.340 6.750 6.745 6.955 7.141 7.227 7.307 7.327 7.451 37.2
Dec 2021 n.a. 3.640 3.960 4.367 4.996 5.296 5.862 6.410 6.454 7.062 145.8
Dec 2020 n.a. 3.070 3.360 3.762 3.865 4.406 5.099 5.729 5.894 6.545 202.9
Dec 2019 n.a. 5.050 5.220 5.562 5.776 6.357 6.477 6.881 6.554 7.121 77.8
Dec 2018 n.a. 6.670 6.890 6.814 7.014 7.100 7.240 7.378 7.370 7.610 35.6
Dec 2017 n.a. 6.220 6.340 6.638 6.778 6.970 7.145 7.352 7.318 7.642 54.0
Dec 2016 n.a. 6.220 6.320 6.359 6.380 6.457 6.649 6.642 6.516 7.112 13.6
Dec 2015 n.a. 7.170 7.240 7.332 7.434 7.618 7.735 7.929 7.758 8.084 32.4

India Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -0.7 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 0.6 bp Yield Curve is flat in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 8.0 bp Yield Curve is flat in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (6.50%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 7.107% 60.7bp
10 years 6.845%
34.5bp
5 years 6.771%
27.1bp
2 years 6.765%
26.5bp
1 year 6.772%
27.2bp
3 months 6.598%
9.8bp

India Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BBB- positive 29 May 2024 outlook upgrade
Moody's Investors Service Baa3 - 5 Oct 2021 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings BBB- - 10 Jun 2022 outlook upgrade
DBRS BBB (low) positive 15 May 2024 outlook upgrade

India Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 6.50%

India Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 84.08 0.00 % 0.00 % +1.42 % 1.40 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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India 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The India 10Y Government Bond has a 6.845% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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India 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 580.3 bp -9.8 bp -23.3 bp -75.6 bp
vs China 10Y 501.8 bp +20.8 bp +32.3 bp +41.8 bp
vs Germany 10Y 466.6 bp +11.2 bp +18.7 bp -38.8 bp
vs Spain 10Y 407.4 bp +27.4 bp +45.9 bp +3.6 bp
vs France 10Y 389.7 bp +16.3 bp +4.4 bp -60.7 bp
vs Canada 10Y 369.6 bp +8.3 bp +10.2 bp -14.7 bp
vs Italy 10Y 354.7 bp +31.6 bp +45.1 bp +29.5 bp
vs United States 10Y 253.8 bp +6.3 bp -16.3 bp -53.1 bp
vs Australia 10Y 250.8 bp +24.0 bp -24.6 bp -48.0 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 244.1 bp +6.0 bp -45.3 bp -84.8 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -675.9 bp -99.1 bp -166.6 bp -312.8 bp
vs Russia 10Y -945.3 bp -36.5 bp -149.5 bp -409.8 bp

India Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
40 years 7.123% 6.38 19.52 45.81 72.10 98.38 124.67
30 years 7.107% 12.75 25.03 49.58 74.13 98.69 123.24
24 years 7.067% 19.42 30.82 53.63 76.43 99.24 122.04
19 years 6.880% 28.25 38.68 59.53 80.39 101.25 122.11
15 years 6.964% 36.43 45.56 63.81 82.07 100.33 118.59
14 years 6.967% 38.95 47.71 65.24 82.76 100.29 117.81
13 years 6.977% 41.61 49.98 66.72 83.46 100.19 116.93
12 years 6.972% 44.54 52.50 68.40 84.31 100.22 116.13
11 years 6.958% 47.71 55.23 70.26 85.29 100.32 115.34
10 years 6.845% 51.58 58.65 72.80 86.95 101.10 115.24
9 years 6.885% 54.92 61.47 74.56 87.66 100.75 113.85
8 years 6.911% 58.59 64.58 76.57 88.55 100.53 112.52
7 years 6.877% 62.78 68.19 79.02 89.84 100.67 111.49
6 years 6.777% 67.47 72.27 81.87 91.47 101.07 110.67
5 years 6.771% 72.07 76.19 84.44 92.69 100.94 109.20
4 years 6.783% 76.91 80.32 87.12 93.93 100.74 107.55
3 years 6.781% 82.13 84.77 90.04 95.31 100.58 105.85
2 years 6.765% 87.73 89.54 93.17 96.80 100.43 104.05
1 year 6.772% 93.66 94.59 96.47 98.34 100.21 102.09
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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