Italy Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
ITALY

The Italy 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 3.733%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Italy 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 94.1 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Italy Central Bank Rate stands at 3.40%, following the most recent adjustment in October 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Italy credit rating is BBB.

The current quotation for Italy 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 58.34 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 0.97%.

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Italy Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Italy Yield Curve
Italy Government Bonds
7 November 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 3.137% -10.4 bp -72.5 bp -57.9 bp 99.74 +0.01 % +0.06 % +0.04 % 1.002 07 Nov
3 months 2.995% +12.2 bp -80.6 bp -73.0 bp 99.26 -0.03 % +0.19 % +0.17 % 1.007 07 Nov
6 months 2.936% -15.2 bp -70.0 bp -90.4 bp 98.56 +0.07 % +0.34 % +0.44 % 1.014 07 Nov
9 months 2.867% -6.7 bp -73.2 bp -102.1 bp 97.90 +0.05 % +0.53 % +0.74 % 1.021 07 Nov
1 year 2.754% -11.2 bp -79.2 bp -110.5 bp 97.32 +0.11 % +0.77 % +1.08 % 1.027 07 Nov
2 years 2.792% +6.9 bp -68.6 bp -96.8 bp 94.64 -0.14 % +1.34 % +1.89 % 1.056 07 Nov
3 years 2.667% +8.8 bp -58.1 bp -102.8 bp 92.41 -0.26 % +1.71 % +3.03 % 1.082 07 Nov
4 years 2.866% +8.9 bp -42.2 bp -93.7 bp 89.31 -0.35 % +1.65 % +3.69 % 1.119 07 Nov
5 years 3.108% +14.9 bp -19.4 bp -78.8 bp 85.81 -0.72 % +0.94 % +3.89 % 1.165 07 Nov
6 years 3.262% +15.7 bp -15.5 bp -72.9 bp 82.48 -0.91 % +0.91 % +4.31 % 1.212 07 Nov
7 years 3.304% +17.7 bp -12.6 bp -87.9 bp 79.65 -1.19 % +0.86 % +6.12 % 1.255 07 Nov
8 years 3.438% +17.7 bp -10.7 bp -83.2 bp 76.31 -1.36 % +0.83 % +6.62 % 1.310 07 Nov
9 years 3.618% +17.5 bp -1.5 bp -75.6 bp 72.62 -1.52 % +0.12 % +6.75 % 1.376 07 Nov
10 years 3.733% +17.1 bp -2.7 bp -74.8 bp 69.32 -1.63 % +0.26 % +7.46 % 1.442 07 Nov
15 years 4.082% +16.9 bp -0.5 bp -75.3 bp 54.87 -2.42 % +0.07 % +11.41 % 1.822 07 Nov
20 years 4.199% +12.5 bp -2.7 bp -78.7 bp 43.93 -2.36 % +0.53 % +16.25 % 2.276 07 Nov
25 years 4.234% +13.2 bp +2.3 bp -67.7 bp 35.46 -3.11 % -0.56 % +17.57 % 2.819 07 Nov
30 years 4.414% +11.8 bp +10.5 bp -64.0 bp 27.37 -3.32 % -2.98 % +20.15 % 3.653 07 Nov
50 years 3.997% +7.1 bp +7.0 bp -62.2 bp 14.09 -3.36 % -3.29 % +34.70 % 7.096 07 Nov
Last Update: 7 Nov 2024, 0:23 GMT+0

Italy Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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(Scroll down to see all data)
Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Nov 2024 3.137 2.995 2.936 2.754 2.792 2.667 3.108 3.304 3.733 4.414 94.1
Dec 2023 3.663 3.648 3.572 3.338 2.973 2.773 3.065 3.309 3.694 4.386 72.1
Dec 2022 1.322 1.394 2.286 3.070 3.220 3.540 4.000 4.231 4.703 4.634 148.3
Dec 2021 -0.015 -0.742 -1.888 -0.481 -0.096 0.107 0.427 0.658 1.168 1.992 126.4
Dec 2020 -0.821 -0.665 -0.541 -0.015 -0.477 -0.419 -0.115 0.101 0.516 1.416 99.3
Dec 2019 -0.636 -0.394 -0.025 -0.200 -0.064 0.047 0.558 0.902 1.400 2.464 146.4
Dec 2018 -0.125 -0.078 0.154 0.030 0.518 0.956 1.844 2.340 2.773 3.562 225.5
Dec 2017 -0.970 -0.674 -0.460 -0.450 -0.180 0.094 0.704 1.346 2.001 3.206 218.1
Dec 2016 n.a. -0.581 -0.321 -0.307 -0.162 0.035 0.601 1.190 1.822 2.923 198.4
Dec 2015 n.a. -0.161 -0.011 -0.029 0.034 0.120 0.633 1.101 1.605 2.709 157.1
Dec 2014 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.881 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2013 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.089 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2012 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.530 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2011 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.035 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.840 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.140 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2008 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.379 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2007 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.563 n.a. n.a.

Italy Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y 3.8 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 31.6 bp Normal Convexity in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 94.1 bp Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (3.40%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 4.414% 101.4bp
10 years 3.733%
33.3bp
5 years 3.108%
-29.2bp
2 years 2.792%
-60.8bp
1 year 2.754%
-64.6bp
3 months 2.995%
-40.5bp

Italy Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BBB - 27 Jul 2022 outlook downgrade
Moody's Investors Service Baa3 - 18 Nov 2023 outlook upgrade
Fitch Ratings BBB positive 18 Oct 2024 outlook upgrade
DBRS BBB (high) positive 28 Oct 2024 outlook upgrade

Italy Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 3.40%

Italy Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 58.34 +3.57 % -7.18 % -45.67 % 0.97 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Italy 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Italy 10Y Government Bond has a 3.733% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Italy 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 276.0 bp +12.2 bp -13.9 bp -84.9 bp
vs China 10Y 160.4 bp +20.2 bp +7.7 bp -19.9 bp
vs Germany 10Y 131.8 bp +0.3 bp -1.7 bp -50.5 bp
vs Spain 10Y 55.7 bp +0.9 bp +1.7 bp -21.2 bp
vs France 10Y 54.7 bp +0.3 bp -28.5 bp -68.2 bp
vs Canada 10Y 39.6 bp +9.9 bp +24.8 bp -29.3 bp
vs United States 10Y -69.8 bp -23.4 bp -0.8 bp -60.8 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y -83.8 bp -19.7 bp -46.4 bp -103.8 bp
vs Australia 10Y -95.7 bp -25.1 bp -42.5 bp -83.3 bp
vs India 10Y -317.8 bp +22.3 bp +19.1 bp -37.9 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -893.3 bp -23.0 bp -126.0 bp -192.8 bp
vs Russia 10Y -1286.9 bp -18.3 bp -201.9 bp -517.5 bp

Italy Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
50 years 3.997% 14.09 35.58 78.57 121.56 164.54 207.53
30 years 4.414% 27.37 43.82 76.73 109.64 142.55 175.46
25 years 4.234% 35.46 50.70 81.19 111.68 142.16 172.65
20 years 4.199% 43.93 57.28 83.99 110.70 137.40 164.11
15 years 4.082% 54.87 65.93 88.04 110.15 132.26 154.37
10 years 3.733% 69.32 77.54 93.97 110.41 126.85 143.29
9 years 3.618% 72.62 80.19 95.32 110.46 125.59 140.72
8 years 3.438% 76.31 83.20 96.98 110.76 124.55 138.33
7 years 3.304% 79.65 85.81 98.13 110.45 122.77 135.08
6 years 3.262% 82.48 87.85 98.59 109.33 120.07 130.82
5 years 3.108% 85.81 90.38 99.51 108.64 117.77 126.90
4 years 2.866% 89.31 93.04 100.50 107.96 115.42 122.87
3 years 2.667% 92.41 95.25 100.95 106.64 112.34 118.03
2 years 2.792% 94.64 96.56 100.40 104.24 108.08 111.91
1 year 2.754% 97.32 98.29 100.24 102.19 104.13 106.08
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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