Turkey Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
TURKEY

The Turkey 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 29.800%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Turkey 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is -1210.5 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Turkey Central Bank Rate stands at 50.00%, following the most recent adjustment in March 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Turkey credit rating is BB-.

The current quotation for Turkey 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 247.91 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 4.13%.

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Turkey Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Turkey Yield Curve
Turkey Government Bonds
7 December 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
3 months 38.164% -416.6 bp n.a. +130.2 bp 92.24 +0.75 % n.a. -0.23 % 1.084 06 Dec
6 months 39.732% -506.2 bp n.a. +344.5 bp 84.60 +1.81 % n.a. -1.24 % 1.182 06 Dec
9 months 41.283% -381.0 bp n.a. +438.4 bp 77.17 +2.02 % n.a. -2.33 % 1.295 06 Dec
2 years 41.905% +259.5 bp -28.0 bp +334.5 bp 49.66 -3.63 % +0.40 % -4.67 % 2.013 06 Dec
3 years 35.400% +140.0 bp +411.5 bp +86.0 bp 40.29 -3.06 % -8.83 % -1.88 % 2.482 06 Dec
5 years 33.960% +113.0 bp +181.5 bp +651.5 bp 23.18 -4.14 % -6.61 % -22.06 % 4.313 06 Dec
10 years 29.800% +127.0 bp +179.5 bp +450.0 bp 7.37 -9.35 % -12.99 % -29.68 % 13.575 06 Dec
Last Update: 7 Dec 2024, 0:15 GMT+0

Turkey Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Dec 2024 n.a. 38.164 39.732 n.a. 41.905 35.400 33.960 n.a. 29.800 n.a. -1210.5
Dec 2023 n.a. 33.955 37.611 n.a. 39.850 32.230 26.125 n.a. 25.130 n.a. -1472.0
Dec 2022 n.a. 10.066 8.979 n.a. 9.840 10.190 7.895 n.a. 9.765 n.a. -7.5
Dec 2021 n.a. 19.545 21.276 22.195 22.845 23.140 25.570 n.a. 24.395 n.a. 155.0
Dec 2020 n.a. n.a. n.a. 15.940 15.020 14.220 13.195 n.a. 12.945 n.a. -207.5
Dec 2019 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.365 11.795 11.620 11.635 n.a. 12.350 n.a. 55.5
Dec 2018 n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.000 18.840 17.890 16.980 n.a. 15.830 n.a. -301.0
Dec 2017 n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.600 13.010 13.000 12.010 n.a. 11.430 n.a. -158.0
Dec 2016 n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.600 10.700 10.470 10.990 n.a. 11.090 n.a. 39.0
Dec 2015 n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.750 10.970 10.830 10.710 n.a. 10.470 n.a. -50.0

Turkey Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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5Y vs 2Y -794.5 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y -1210.5 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (50.00%)
3 months 2 years 5 years
10 years 29.800% -2020.0bp
5 years 33.960%
-1604.0bp
2 years 41.905%
-809.5bp
3 months 38.164%
-1183.6bp

Turkey Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's BB- - 4 Nov 2024 rating upgrade
Moody's Investors Service B1 positive 23 Jul 2024 rating upgrade
Fitch Ratings B+ positive 8 Mar 2024 rating upgrade
DBRS BB (high) negative 21 Jul 2016 rating downgrade

Turkey Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 50.00%

Turkey Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 247.91 -2.49 % -6.63 % -25.41 % 4.13 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Turkey 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Turkey 10Y Government Bond has a 29.800% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Turkey 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 2875.7 bp +123.0 bp +171.6 bp +420.8 bp
vs China 10Y 2783.5 bp +143.1 bp +214.9 bp +523.6 bp
vs Germany 10Y 2769.8 bp +160.7 bp +231.7 bp +459.4 bp
vs Spain 10Y 2704.2 bp +169.4 bp +243.4 bp +494.7 bp
vs France 10Y 2692.7 bp +158.8 bp +202.7 bp +436.6 bp
vs Canada 10Y 2682.1 bp +153.3 bp +230.7 bp +484.7 bp
vs Italy 10Y 2660.5 bp +179.8 bp +254.3 bp +523.7 bp
vs United States 10Y 2565.1 bp +145.4 bp +208.1 bp +449.3 bp
vs Australia 10Y 2553.7 bp +170.3 bp +185.6 bp +452.8 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 2552.3 bp +147.3 bp +177.2 bp +418.9 bp
vs India 10Y 2295.0 bp +132.8 bp +196.3 bp +488.6 bp
vs Brazil 10Y 1582.3 bp -9.8 bp -35.1 bp +139.8 bp
vs Russia 10Y 1382.5 bp +180.9 bp +64.0 bp +94.5 bp

Turkey Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
10 years 29.800% 7.37 10.47 16.69 22.91 29.13 35.34
5 years 33.960% 23.18 25.44 29.97 34.49 39.01 43.54
3 years 35.400% 40.29 41.97 45.35 48.72 52.09 55.47
2 years 41.905% 49.66 50.86 53.26 55.67 58.07 60.47
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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