Ukraine Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
UKRAINE
Last Update: 28 Nov 2023 0:15 GMT+0

The Ukraine 10Y Government Bond has an estimated 9.520% yield. Its value is not derived from the market, but it's calculated according to the yields of other available durations.

Central Bank Rate is 16.00% (last modification in October 2023).

The Ukraine credit rating is CCC, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 550.90 and implied probability of default is 9.18%.

Table of contents

Ukraine Yield Curve

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Residual
Maturity
Yield ZC Price Last
Change
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M
1 year 28.295% -46.5 bp -132.5 bp 77.95 +0.37 % +1.04 % 28 Nov
2 years 25.975% -58.5 bp -1586.5 bp 63.01 +0.93 % +26.76 % 28 Nov
3 years 19.040% +65.0 bp -471.0 bp 59.28 -1.63 % +12.34 % 28 Nov
6 years 18.235% 0.0 bp -304.5 bp 36.60 0.00 % +16.49 % 11 Sep
Last Update: 28 Nov 2023 0:15 GMT+0

Ukraine Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.
The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Bond Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (16.00%)
1 year
2 years 25.975% 997.5 bp
1 year 28.295%
1229.5 bp

Focusing on 2 years Government Bond:

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2Y vs 1Y -232 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Short-Term Maturities

Ukraine Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation). For a deeper analysis of credit ratings, click here Ukraine Credit Ratings History

Rating Agency Rating Outlook
Standard & Poor's CCC negative
Moody's Investors Service Ca -
Fitch Ratings CC -
DBRS - -

Ukraine Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 16.00%

Ukraine Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 550.90 +1.06 % +1.84 % +32.82 % 9.18 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.

Ukraine 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Ukraine 10Y Government Bond has an estimated 9.520% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Ukraine 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 876.7 bp +44.6 bp -880.5 bp
vs Germany 10Y 701.5 bp +63.4 bp -843.7 bp
vs China 10Y 681.5 bp +35.5 bp -843.8 bp
vs France 10Y 644.8 bp +69.3 bp -844.0 bp
vs Spain 10Y 601.1 bp +72.5 bp -840.0 bp
vs Canada 10Y 587.2 bp +69.5 bp -875.6 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 529.8 bp +66.5 bp -836.1 bp
vs Italy 10Y 525.5 bp +89.9 bp -836.3 bp
vs United States 10Y 515.5 bp +80.5 bp -902.0 bp
vs Australia 10Y 505.5 bp +67.7 bp -920.8 bp
vs India 10Y 224.7 bp +40.3 bp -873.7 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -145.2 bp +107.4 bp -782.3 bp
vs Russia 10Y -255.0 bp +74.5 bp -983.7 bp

Ukraine Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
3 years 19.040% 59.28 61.42 65.70 69.97 74.25 78.53
2 years 25.975% 63.01 64.44 67.28 70.13 72.98 75.83
1 year 28.295% 77.95 78.72 80.28 81.84 83.40 84.96
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

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