France Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
FRANCE

The France 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 2.981%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between France 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is 82.9 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

France Central Bank Rate stands at 3.15%, following the most recent adjustment in December 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the France credit rating is AA-.

The current quotation for France 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 35.95 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 0.60%.

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France Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

France Yield Curve
France Government Bonds
12 December 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 2.757% -44.8 bp -90.3 bp -91.7 bp 99.77 +0.03 % +0.07 % +0.07 % 1.002 12 Dec
3 months 2.766% -21.1 bp -91.1 bp -99.3 bp 99.32 +0.05 % +0.22 % +0.24 % 1.006 12 Dec
6 months 2.633% -18.3 bp -99.2 bp -113.7 bp 98.71 +0.09 % +0.48 % +0.55 % 1.013 12 Dec
9 months 2.405% -17.4 bp -109.2 bp -109.8 bp 98.23 +0.12 % +0.79 % +0.80 % 1.017 12 Dec
1 year 2.364% -16.6 bp -112.5 bp -109.7 bp 97.69 +0.16 % +1.10 % +1.08 % 1.023 12 Dec
2 years 2.152% -21.5 bp -100.7 bp -67.2 bp 95.83 +0.42 % +1.98 % +1.32 % 1.043 12 Dec
3 years 2.263% -23.5 bp -79.8 bp -38.7 bp 93.51 +0.69 % +2.36 % +1.15 % 1.069 12 Dec
4 years 2.421% -16.6 bp -58.2 bp -15.3 bp 90.87 +0.64 % +2.29 % +0.60 % 1.100 12 Dec
5 years 2.513% -18.2 bp -47.3 bp -2.3 bp 88.33 +0.89 % +2.33 % +0.11 % 1.132 12 Dec
6 years 2.604% -18.9 bp -39.8 bp +5.8 bp 85.71 +1.11 % +2.35 % -0.34 % 1.166 12 Dec
7 years 2.702% -15.1 bp -31.0 bp +12.2 bp 82.98 +1.03 % +2.13 % -0.82 % 1.205 12 Dec
8 years 2.819% -13.6 bp -23.2 bp +19.0 bp 80.06 +1.06 % +1.82 % -1.46 % 1.249 12 Dec
9 years 2.913% -14.3 bp -20.0 bp +21.7 bp 77.23 +1.26 % +1.77 % -1.88 % 1.294 12 Dec
10 years 2.981% -19.2 bp -17.8 bp +21.0 bp 74.55 +1.89 % +1.75 % -2.01 % 1.341 12 Dec
15 years 3.197% -13.9 bp -16.7 bp +19.9 bp 62.37 +2.03 % +2.45 % -2.85 % 1.603 12 Dec
20 years 3.317% -12.8 bp -13.7 bp +15.5 bp 52.07 +2.52 % +2.68 % -2.95 % 1.920 12 Dec
25 years 3.390% -9.4 bp -11.4 bp +21.8 bp 43.45 +2.28 % +2.79 % -5.15 % 2.301 12 Dec
30 years 3.540% -11.0 bp -6.6 bp +30.3 bp 35.22 +3.25 % +1.94 % -8.40 % 2.839 12 Dec
50 years 3.100% -1.6 bp +1.9 bp +32.9 bp 21.73 +0.79 % -0.91 % -14.78 % 4.601 12 Dec
Last Update: 12 Dec 2024, 15:23 GMT+0

France Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Dec 2024 2.757 2.766 2.633 2.364 2.152 2.263 2.513 2.702 2.981 3.540 82.9
Dec 2023 3.595 3.617 3.561 3.267 2.464 2.257 2.223 2.303 2.566 3.103 10.2
Dec 2022 0.879 1.793 1.972 2.624 2.836 2.813 2.887 2.894 3.102 3.323 26.6
Dec 2021 -0.890 -0.785 -0.755 -0.667 -0.637 -0.587 -0.357 -0.178 0.193 0.953 83.0
Dec 2020 -0.944 -0.698 -0.644 -0.636 -0.743 -0.731 -0.648 -0.564 -0.343 0.358 40.0
Dec 2019 -0.624 -0.632 -0.640 -0.608 -0.622 -0.559 -0.360 -0.150 0.121 0.919 74.3
Dec 2018 -0.850 -0.900 -0.791 -0.651 -0.441 -0.287 0.042 0.280 0.710 1.639 115.1
Dec 2017 -0.787 -0.729 -0.745 -0.627 -0.464 -0.341 -0.059 0.280 0.778 1.763 124.2
Dec 2016 -0.873 -0.945 -0.796 -0.726 -0.682 -0.581 -0.271 0.058 0.683 1.620 136.5
Dec 2015 -0.444 -0.446 -0.387 -0.381 -0.312 -0.209 0.092 0.409 0.993 2.021 130.5
Dec 2014 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.837 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2013 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.432 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2012 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.994 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2011 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.152 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2010 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.350 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2009 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.613 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2008 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.414 n.a. n.a.
Dec 2007 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.423 n.a. n.a.

France Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -21.2 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y 36.1 bp Normal Convexity in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 82.9 bp Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (3.15%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 3.540% 39.0bp
10 years 2.981%
-16.9bp
5 years 2.513%
-63.7bp
2 years 2.152%
-99.8bp
1 year 2.364%
-78.6bp
3 months 2.766%
-38.4bp

France Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's AA- - 1 Jun 2024 rating downgrade
Moody's Investors Service A2a negative 28 Oct 2024 rating downgrade
Fitch Ratings AA- negative 11 Oct 2024 outlook downgrade
DBRS AA (high) - 19 Oct 2020 rating downgrade

France Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 3.15%

France Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 35.95 -12.12 % +12.45 % +43.80 % 0.60 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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France 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The France 10Y Government Bond has a 2.981% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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France 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 194.2 bp -22.5 bp -24.1 bp -11.3 bp
vs China 10Y 115.4 bp +7.8 bp +31.2 bp +105.8 bp
vs Germany 10Y 77.4 bp -4.6 bp +14.8 bp +22.4 bp
vs Spain 10Y 11.4 bp +4.8 bp +35.2 bp +58.0 bp
vs Canada 10Y -16.8 bp -4.7 bp +9.1 bp +49.3 bp
vs Italy 10Y -36.4 bp +13.9 bp +39.3 bp +88.8 bp
vs United States 10Y -133.1 bp -7.2 bp -17.9 bp +10.4 bp
vs Australia 10Y -136.4 bp +10.2 bp -26.5 bp +15.2 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y -143.2 bp -7.9 bp -47.3 bp -21.7 bp
vs India 10Y -386.4 bp -13.0 bp -1.1 bp +64.0 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -1062.3 bp -112.1 bp -167.7 bp -248.8 bp
vs Russia 10Y -1331.7 bp -49.5 bp -150.6 bp -345.8 bp

France Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
50 years 3.100% 21.73 46.98 97.48 147.97 198.47 248.96
30 years 3.540% 35.22 53.52 90.12 126.72 163.32 199.92
25 years 3.390% 43.45 60.13 93.49 126.85 160.21 193.57
20 years 3.317% 52.07 66.52 95.42 124.32 153.22 182.12
15 years 3.197% 62.37 74.14 97.68 121.22 144.76 168.30
10 years 2.981% 74.55 83.09 100.16 117.24 134.32 151.39
9 years 2.913% 77.23 85.04 100.68 116.32 131.95 147.59
8 years 2.819% 80.06 87.13 101.28 115.43 129.57 143.72
7 years 2.702% 82.98 89.28 101.88 114.48 127.08 139.69
6 years 2.604% 85.71 91.20 102.17 113.15 124.13 135.11
5 years 2.513% 88.33 92.97 102.26 111.55 120.84 130.13
4 years 2.421% 90.87 94.64 102.18 109.72 117.26 124.80
3 years 2.263% 93.51 96.38 102.11 107.85 113.59 119.33
2 years 2.152% 95.83 97.77 101.64 105.52 109.39 113.27
1 year 2.364% 97.69 98.67 100.62 102.58 104.53 106.48
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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