Portugal Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
PORTUGAL
Last Update: 19 Mar 2024 0:15 GMT+0

The Portugal 10Y Government Bond has a 3.079% yield.

10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is 33.2 bp.
Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Central Bank Rate is 4.50% (last modification in September 2023).

The Portugal credit rating is A-, according to Standard & Poor's agency.

Current 5-Years Credit Default Swap quotation is 34.38 and implied probability of default is 0.57%.

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Portugal Yield Curve

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Residual
Maturity
Yield ZC Price Last
Change
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M
3 months 3.837% -6.1 bp +36.6 bp 18 Mar
6 months 0.001% -380.2 bp -336.6 bp 18 Mar
1 year 3.516% +0.1 bp -5.9 bp 96.60 0.00 % +0.05 % 18 Mar
2 years 2.747% +10.8 bp -43.2 bp 94.72 -0.21 % +0.84 % 18 Mar
3 years 2.687% +4.0 bp -49.3 bp 92.35 -0.12 % +1.44 % 18 Mar
4 years 2.583% -1.9 bp -60.5 bp 90.30 +0.07 % +2.38 % 18 Mar
5 years 2.646% -3.4 bp -50.1 bp 87.76 +0.17 % +2.46 % 18 Mar
6 years 2.658% -5.0 bp -54.5 bp 85.44 +0.29 % +3.24 % 18 Mar
7 years 2.697% -5.2 bp -56.8 bp 83.00 +0.35 % +3.93 % 18 Mar
8 years 2.773% -7.5 bp -55.1 bp 80.35 +0.59 % +4.38 % 18 Mar
9 years 2.864% -6.7 bp -54.2 bp 77.56 +0.58 % +4.84 % 18 Mar
10 years 3.079% +0.6 bp -39.9 bp 73.84 -0.05 % +3.94 % 18 Mar
15 years 3.284% -8.7 bp -58.0 bp 61.59 +1.27 % +8.76 % 18 Mar
20 years 3.392% -9.3 bp -53.0 bp 51.32 +1.83 % +10.77 % 18 Mar
30 years 3.459% -10.9 bp -51.1 bp 36.05 +3.21 % +15.92 % 18 Mar
Last Update: 19 Mar 2024 0:15 GMT+0

Portugal Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.
The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Bond Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (4.50%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years
30 years 3.459% -104.1 bp
10 years 3.079%
-142.1 bp
5 years 2.646%
-185.4 bp
2 years 2.747%
-175.3 bp
1 year 3.516%
-98.4 bp
3 months 3.837%
-66.3 bp

Focusing on 2 years Government Bond:

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2Y vs 1Y -76.9 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y -10.1 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y 33.2 bp Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities

Portugal Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation). For a deeper analysis of credit ratings, click here Portugal Credit Ratings History

Rating Agency Rating Outlook
Standard & Poor's A- positive
Moody's Investors Service A3 -
Fitch Ratings A- -
DBRS A -

Portugal Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 4.50%

Portugal Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 34.38 -1.63 % -10.42 % -29.79 % 0.57 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.

Portugal 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Portugal 10Y Government Bond has a 3.079% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
If data are not all visible, swipe table left
Portugal 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 232.1 bp -2.7 bp -45.5 bp
vs China 10Y 78.0 bp +15.8 bp -0.7 bp
vs Germany 10Y 62.7 bp -3.3 bp -9.9 bp
vs France 10Y 18.8 bp +0.7 bp -0.1 bp
vs Spain 10Y -16.0 bp +8.6 bp +17.8 bp
vs Canada 10Y -54.7 bp -0.4 bp -12.3 bp
vs Italy 10Y -59.6 bp +24.0 bp +48.1 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y -104.9 bp +3.7 bp -13.8 bp
vs Australia 10Y -107.3 bp +5.8 bp -32.2 bp
vs United States 10Y -125.0 bp +0.5 bp -36.4 bp
vs India 10Y -400.8 bp +1.8 bp -33.7 bp
vs Brazil 10Y -790.1 bp -24.2 bp -3.9 bp
vs Russia 10Y -1071.1 bp -112.4 bp -169.9 bp

Portugal Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
If data are not all visible, swipe table left
Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
30 years 3.459% 36.05 54.54 91.51 128.49 165.46 202.44
20 years 3.392% 51.32 65.67 94.37 123.08 151.78 180.49
15 years 3.284% 61.59 73.29 96.68 120.07 143.46 166.86
10 years 3.079% 73.84 82.34 99.33 116.32 133.31 150.30
9 years 2.864% 77.56 85.39 101.07 116.74 132.41 148.08
8 years 2.773% 80.35 87.43 101.61 115.78 129.96 144.13
7 years 2.697% 83.00 89.31 101.91 114.51 127.12 139.72
6 years 2.658% 85.44 90.92 101.87 112.83 123.79 134.75
5 years 2.646% 87.76 92.38 101.64 110.89 120.14 129.40
4 years 2.583% 90.30 94.06 101.57 109.07 116.58 124.09
3 years 2.687% 92.35 95.20 100.89 106.58 112.27 117.97
2 years 2.747% 94.72 96.64 100.49 104.33 108.17 112.01
1 year 3.516% 96.60 97.57 99.50 101.43 103.37 105.30
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

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