Inverted Yield Curves

Last Update: 27 Mar 2023 2:23 GMT+0

25 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left

S&P Rating	Yield Curves
S&P Rating	Totally Inverted	Partially Inverted	Minimally Inverted
A to AAA	Chile Iceland Czech Republic Canada Qatar Sweden Malta United States New Zealand Germany Israel Denmark Norway Hong Kong South Korea Singapore	Poland Lithuania Netherlands United Kingdom Finland France Australia Austria Belgium	Ireland Switzerland Spain Slovenia
B to BBB	Hungary Mexico Egypt Kazakhstan Turkey	Vietnam Thailand Colombia	India Croatia Bahrain Portugal Cyprus Romania Brazil Italy Greece Uganda
Other	Ukraine Sri Lanka Pakistan Namibia	Russia

Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left

Country	Long vs Short Term 10Y vs 2Y Spread	Mid vs Short Term 5Y vs 2Y Spread	Short Term 2Y vs 1Y Spread
Ukraine	-975.3 bp	-78.7 bp	-3385.0 bp
Sri Lanka	-656.6 bp	-248.6 bp	4.6 bp
Pakistan	-544.2 bp	-529.2 bp	-176.4 bp
Hungary	-395.0 bp	-312.0 bp	-211.0 bp
Namibia	-241.3 bp	88.5 bp	5.8 bp
Mexico	-219.3 bp	-189.5 bp	-70.2 bp
Chile	-203.0 bp	-172.0 bp	-84.0 bp
Egypt	-187.9 bp	-116.3 bp	26.9 bp
Kazakhstan	-164.4 bp	-54.3 bp	-24.3 bp
Iceland	-122.8 bp	-17.2 bp	-5.7 bp
Turkey	-85.5 bp	-152.5 bp	-160.6 bp
Czech Republic	-77.7 bp	-53.2 bp	-82.7 bp
Canada	-67.7 bp	-64.7 bp	-65.9 bp
Qatar	-59.8 bp	-41.4 bp	22.9 bp
Sweden	-58.9 bp	-51.0 bp	-41.5 bp
Malta	-45.7 bp	-56.2 bp	-86.8 bp
United States	-43.0 bp	-38.8 bp	-62.5 bp
New Zealand	-29.5 bp	-29.8 bp	-45.5 bp
Germany	-29.1 bp	-30.7 bp	-34.9 bp
Israel	-28.8 bp	-24.6 bp	-39.2 bp
Denmark	-17.6 bp	-21.0 bp	-14.9 bp
Norway	-11.8 bp	-20.3 bp	-16.2 bp
Hong Kong	-11.5 bp	-25.0 bp	-6.3 bp
South Korea	-6.0 bp	-10.0 bp	-8.5 bp
Singapore	-0.3 bp	-8.9 bp	-57.2 bp
Poland	2.4 bp	-4.0 bp	-7.4 bp
Lithuania	8.7 bp	-35.0 bp	-11.6 bp
Netherlands	9.3 bp	-5.2 bp	-28.1 bp
United Kingdom	10.2 bp	-7.4 bp	-61.7 bp
Finland	11.8 bp	-15.8 bp	-17.8 bp
Taiwan	12.9 bp	1.0 bp	0.3 bp
France	17.3 bp	-2.0 bp	-46.0 bp
Bangladesh	21.0 bp	7.5 bp	78.0 bp
Vietnam	21.4 bp	-0.2 bp	5.3 bp
Philippines	24.8 bp	2.9 bp	14.9 bp
Australia	24.9 bp	-5.2 bp	-13.2 bp
Austria	25.1 bp	-3.2 bp	-13.2 bp
India	28.7 bp	13.5 bp	-15.7 bp
Slovakia	29.0 bp	2.7 bp	0.9 bp
Thailand	31.5 bp	-1.4 bp	2.9 bp
Croatia	32.2 bp	8.8 bp	-0.6 bp
Colombia	33.4 bp	-20.0 bp	-12.6 bp
Japan	35.2 bp	13.4 bp	6.1 bp
Belgium	35.4 bp	-1.0 bp	-40.2 bp
Ireland	37.2 bp	25.2 bp	-49.9 bp
Switzerland	37.9 bp	21.1 bp	-81.9 bp
Bahrain	42.1 bp	15.8 bp	-46.3 bp
Portugal	47.3 bp	5.0 bp	-9.7 bp
China	49.8 bp	29.8 bp	15.5 bp
Spain	51.0 bp	12.6 bp	-15.6 bp
Cyprus	52.4 bp	8.6 bp	-4.7 bp
Slovenia	56.3 bp	9.9 bp	-56.7 bp
Russia	63.0 bp	-26.0 bp	75.0 bp
Indonesia	68.9 bp	27.4 bp	18.3 bp
Malaysia	75.6 bp	37.1 bp	11.7 bp
Romania	76.0 bp	77.0 bp	-23.0 bp
Morocco	89.0 bp	40.3 bp	34.4 bp
Brazil	89.4 bp	23.1 bp	-120.5 bp
Perù	92.6 bp	29.8 bp	9.9 bp
Mauritius	93.8 bp	39.2 bp	33.2 bp
Italy	106.4 bp	50.9 bp	-7.6 bp
Greece	113.0 bp	57.3 bp	-12.9 bp
Latvia	135.0 bp	60.0 bp	30.0 bp
Serbia	141.6 bp	13.0 bp	17.4 bp
South Africa	175.2 bp	15.2 bp	5.0 bp
Bulgaria	182.9 bp	80.9 bp	38.6 bp
Kenya	301.5 bp	222.5 bp	94.2 bp
Nigeria	399.7 bp	382.2 bp	181.7 bp
Uganda	447.5 bp	378.0 bp	-100.6 bp
Zambia	1063.6 bp	731.9 bp	328.3 bp

Detailed domestic spreads

Related Topics