Last Update: 28 Sep 2020 12:15 GMT+0

3 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Slovakia -2089.2 bp -2120.3 bp -706.7 bp
Turkey -15.0 bp -7.5 bp 107.0 bp
Lithuania 7.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Uganda 11.9 bp 167.6 bp 318.0 bp
Japan 16.8 bp 3.9 bp 1.1 bp
Germany 18.9 bp -0.8 bp -9.4 bp
Sweden 26.0 bp 9.7 bp 3.3 bp
Netherlands 26.1 bp 1.4 bp -4.5 bp
Denmark 27.0 bp 10.1 bp 3.4 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
United Kingdom 27.5 bp -2.4 bp -4.5 bp
Taiwan 28.0 bp 18.5 bp 6.2 bp
Canada 30.0 bp 9.8 bp 3.7 bp
New Zealand 32.0 bp -17.1 bp -5.7 bp
Austria 32.0 bp 4.1 bp -5.7 bp
Hong Kong 32.1 bp 9.2 bp 5.7 bp
Switzerland 33.7 bp 10.9 bp -12.7 bp
Finland 37.0 bp 13.9 bp 4.6 bp
China 38.3 bp 21.0 bp 17.7 bp
Romania 39.0 bp 22.0 bp 58.8 bp
Belgium 39.8 bp 7.3 bp -8.7 bp
Qatar 40.8 bp -33.5 bp -11.1 bp
France 41.4 bp 4.9 bp -6.1 bp
Slovenia 42.7 bp 7.3 bp -5.7 bp
Bulgaria 48.6 bp 24.7 bp 8.5 bp
Cyprus 49.1 bp 8.7 bp 5.8 bp
Norway 50.1 bp 16.6 bp 17.6 bp
United States 53.8 bp 13.9 bp 1.4 bp
Malta 56.3 bp 14.6 bp 1.0 bp
Morocco 62.1 bp 24.6 bp 16.9 bp
South Korea 62.6 bp 31.7 bp 14.7 bp
Israel 63.8 bp 24.2 bp 2.0 bp
Egypt 64.4 bp 48.0 bp 74.6 bp
Singapore 65.2 bp 21.3 bp -3.0 bp
Thailand 65.8 bp 11.6 bp 14.5 bp
Australia 67.3 bp 18.7 bp 4.9 bp
Croatia 69.3 bp 26.7 bp 10.8 bp
Malaysia 73.3 bp 26.8 bp -8.6 bp
Spain 76.0 bp 21.1 bp -1.6 bp
Czech Republic 81.9 bp 48.7 bp -3.2 bp
Ireland 81.9 bp 44.3 bp 38.1 bp
Portugal 86.2 bp 38.0 bp -7.0 bp
Mauritius 92.3 bp 49.4 bp 20.1 bp
Philippines 93.3 bp 61.1 bp 33.7 bp
Greece 101.4 bp 23.6 bp 7.9 bp
Italy 110.4 bp 49.1 bp 9.2 bp
Botswana 124.3 bp 108.3 bp 71.9 bp
Poland 124.5 bp 54.4 bp 9.7 bp
Serbia 130.3 bp 79.7 bp 4.9 bp
Mexico 135.5 bp 42.8 bp 8.6 bp
Hungary 136.0 bp 70.5 bp 30.0 bp
Iceland 145.0 bp 56.0 bp 18.6 bp
India 156.5 bp 92.1 bp 73.1 bp
Jordan 157.7 bp 111.6 bp -57.3 bp
Bahrain 163.7 bp 61.4 bp -6.9 bp
Russia 164.0 bp 88.5 bp 52.5 bp
Sri Lanka 180.9 bp 93.2 bp 71.8 bp
Bangladesh 199.0 bp 101.0 bp -43.0 bp
Pakistan 203.3 bp 121.0 bp 24.0 bp
Colombia 228.2 bp 142.6 bp 37.7 bp
Chile 231.0 bp 105.0 bp 26.0 bp
Vietnam 233.9 bp 89.6 bp 19.2 bp
Indonesia 265.8 bp 135.4 bp 67.7 bp
Kenya 334.3 bp 178.4 bp 107.0 bp
Argentina 340.0 bp 127.5 bp -54.0 bp
Perù 362.5 bp 153.9 bp 32.0 bp
Brazil 379.6 bp 268.4 bp 66.5 bp
Ukraine 400.0 bp 150.0 bp 51.0 bp
South Africa 496.5 bp 271.0 bp 12.3 bp
Nigeria 516.7 bp 104.7 bp 151.4 bp
Namibia 641.6 bp 213.0 bp 48.6 bp
Zambia 1625.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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