Last Update: 26 Nov 2020 9:15 GMT+0

3 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Slovakia -2106.4 bp -2122.7 bp -707.5 bp
Turkey -139.5 bp -114.0 bp -156.0 bp
Lithuania 2.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Taiwan 9.0 bp 3.5 bp 1.2 bp
Japan 17.2 bp 3.8 bp 0.5 bp
Germany 18.7 bp 0.0 bp -7.3 bp
Denmark 19.0 bp 7.1 bp 2.4 bp
Cyprus 20.8 bp -2.5 bp -3.7 bp
Netherlands 25.7 bp 3.1 bp -2.0 bp
China 26.7 bp 7.6 bp 5.3 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Austria 31.3 bp 4.6 bp -10.4 bp
Switzerland 32.3 bp 9.8 bp -0.9 bp
Belgium 33.0 bp 4.5 bp -9.1 bp
United Kingdom 34.6 bp 4.3 bp -0.2 bp
Finland 37.0 bp 13.9 bp 4.6 bp
Sweden 37.0 bp 13.9 bp 4.6 bp
France 37.3 bp 4.1 bp -8.5 bp
Ireland 39.5 bp 6.2 bp 0.7 bp
Slovenia 40.1 bp 8.7 bp 7.0 bp
Canada 44.3 bp 18.3 bp 8.8 bp
Egypt 54.4 bp 36.9 bp 99.3 bp
Hong Kong 57.4 bp 25.0 bp 4.0 bp
Bulgaria 59.6 bp 30.6 bp 19.5 bp
Malta 62.4 bp 16.1 bp 5.3 bp
Botswana 62.4 bp 158.1 bp 64.8 bp
New Zealand 64.3 bp 7.0 bp 2.3 bp
Singapore 65.5 bp 24.3 bp -2.7 bp
Israel 66.0 bp 20.0 bp 9.8 bp
Spain 66.1 bp 12.7 bp -1.3 bp
Morocco 69.3 bp 34.3 bp 8.5 bp
Portugal 70.4 bp 23.7 bp -11.8 bp
Thailand 71.5 bp 10.1 bp 12.9 bp
Norway 71.8 bp 33.9 bp 8.3 bp
United States 72.1 bp 23.2 bp 5.5 bp
Romania 76.0 bp 29.0 bp 15.3 bp
South Korea 77.5 bp 45.1 bp 24.6 bp
Croatia 79.4 bp 38.0 bp 25.5 bp
Greece 80.9 bp 16.3 bp 5.4 bp
Australia 82.0 bp 20.6 bp 6.8 bp
Malaysia 89.3 bp 34.8 bp 4.3 bp
Italy 104.1 bp 40.8 bp 0.5 bp
Mauritius 104.1 bp 64.8 bp 49.2 bp
Qatar 106.3 bp 35.1 bp 11.7 bp
Philippines 116.2 bp 90.8 bp 17.5 bp
Poland 118.9 bp 38.7 bp 13.5 bp
Serbia 122.5 bp 85.8 bp 7.2 bp
Czech Republic 125.1 bp 74.5 bp 18.7 bp
Mexico 125.5 bp 39.2 bp 10.3 bp
Russia 135.0 bp 73.5 bp 31.5 bp
Hungary 141.7 bp 74.7 bp 24.8 bp
Jordan 158.7 bp 112.8 bp 25.8 bp
Uganda 161.1 bp 157.5 bp 369.1 bp
Bangladesh 184.5 bp 92.0 bp 99.0 bp
Sri Lanka 191.4 bp 77.8 bp 82.2 bp
Indonesia 191.4 bp 85.0 bp 45.7 bp
India 196.1 bp 113.4 bp 53.7 bp
Iceland 199.7 bp 56.0 bp 18.6 bp
Vietnam 202.3 bp 84.8 bp 11.3 bp
Colombia 211.1 bp 121.5 bp 36.0 bp
Ukraine 216.0 bp 81.0 bp 98.5 bp
Chile 237.0 bp 104.0 bp 22.0 bp
Pakistan 241.2 bp 113.0 bp 25.4 bp
Kenya 281.1 bp 117.1 bp 117.6 bp
Bahrain 322.5 bp 131.9 bp -27.4 bp
Perù 328.9 bp 107.8 bp 32.3 bp
Nigeria 365.5 bp 173.5 bp 56.9 bp
Brazil 373.1 bp 282.1 bp 92.2 bp
South Africa 449.5 bp 259.5 bp -8.9 bp
Namibia 536.1 bp 214.7 bp 27.8 bp
Zambia 1900.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Argentina 4130.0 bp 2091.0 bp -1277.0 bp

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