Last Update: 8 Mar 2021 3:15 GMT+0

4 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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S&P
Rating
Yield Curves
Totally Inverted Partially Inverted Minimally Inverted
AAA
AA
A
Denmark
Finland
Japan
Germany
Netherlands
France
Belgium
Spain
BBB
BB
B
Turkey
Cyprus
Portugal
Bahrain
Other Venezuela

Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Turkey -260.5 bp -181.0 bp -43.0 bp
Denmark -7.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Finland -4.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Lithuania 3.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Sweden 22.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Japan 23.0 bp 5.1 bp -0.1 bp
Taiwan 24.5 bp 19.0 bp 6.3 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
China 35.7 bp 14.6 bp 35.4 bp
Germany 38.5 bp 7.1 bp -6.1 bp
Netherlands 41.8 bp 7.3 bp -3.5 bp
Bulgaria 41.9 bp 17.1 bp 3.8 bp
Slovakia 47.4 bp 12.9 bp 4.3 bp
Switzerland 51.5 bp 18.2 bp 2.5 bp
Croatia 54.3 bp 19.8 bp 13.6 bp
Austria 54.5 bp 14.4 bp 2.1 bp
Slovenia 57.3 bp 16.9 bp 3.8 bp
France 60.2 bp 18.2 bp -5.3 bp
Ireland 63.4 bp 14.1 bp 2.5 bp
Morocco 64.9 bp 26.0 bp 16.3 bp
Belgium 65.5 bp 16.7 bp -7.5 bp
United Kingdom 66.5 bp 27.3 bp 8.1 bp
Cyprus 77.0 bp 41.6 bp -18.3 bp
Malta 81.9 bp 16.9 bp 4.1 bp
Serbia 82.1 bp 58.2 bp 30.3 bp
Spain 91.0 bp 29.7 bp -2.5 bp
Egypt 94.0 bp 61.7 bp 96.0 bp
Portugal 95.4 bp 38.6 bp -16.9 bp
Norway 102.3 bp 58.8 bp 26.2 bp
Israel 106.0 bp 32.2 bp 15.0 bp
Greece 106.2 bp 26.5 bp 8.8 bp
Singapore 106.6 bp 31.4 bp 13.0 bp
Thailand 108.8 bp 28.2 bp 17.5 bp
South Korea 111.1 bp 58.7 bp 26.7 bp
Italy 112.9 bp 49.2 bp 3.7 bp
Canada 121.3 bp 61.5 bp 11.0 bp
Hong Kong 127.8 bp 61.0 bp 6.5 bp
Romania 131.5 bp 69.0 bp 24.4 bp
Czech Republic 133.0 bp 84.7 bp 67.8 bp
Malaysia 134.2 bp 55.1 bp 18.0 bp
United States 143.7 bp 66.8 bp 6.6 bp
Mauritius 149.4 bp 59.0 bp 18.7 bp
India 149.7 bp 111.4 bp 62.4 bp
New Zealand 150.8 bp 77.3 bp 1.9 bp
Poland 151.1 bp 81.2 bp 11.8 bp
Philippines 158.3 bp 51.6 bp 79.4 bp
Hungary 160.0 bp 78.5 bp 49.5 bp
Russia 161.0 bp 116.5 bp 77.5 bp
Australia 163.7 bp 64.9 bp 9.9 bp
Jordan 166.9 bp 74.4 bp 35.4 bp
Qatar 177.7 bp 62.8 bp 14.5 bp
Vietnam 185.2 bp 55.8 bp 17.5 bp
Iceland 202.9 bp 103.8 bp 34.6 bp
Mexico 205.9 bp 61.4 bp 9.1 bp
Indonesia 206.8 bp 113.7 bp 76.6 bp
Pakistan 220.8 bp 146.1 bp 17.4 bp
Brazil 233.9 bp 89.0 bp 168.5 bp
Sri Lanka 258.7 bp 139.4 bp 70.5 bp
Botswana 271.4 bp 235.1 bp 107.3 bp
Chile 274.0 bp 120.0 bp 20.0 bp
Bangladesh 291.0 bp 110.0 bp 194.0 bp
Colombia 303.3 bp 200.3 bp 57.7 bp
Kenya 307.1 bp 147.6 bp 41.9 bp
Uganda 313.0 bp 263.0 bp 129.0 bp
Bahrain 364.1 bp 193.3 bp -117.9 bp
South Africa 391.0 bp 218.0 bp 57.7 bp
PerĂ¹ 393.3 bp 130.2 bp 43.0 bp
Namibia 408.2 bp 64.1 bp 164.9 bp
Ukraine 416.0 bp 156.0 bp 124.0 bp
Argentina 636.7 bp 158.4 bp 31.3 bp
Nigeria 814.0 bp 713.0 bp 22.6 bp
Zambia 1900.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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