Last Update: 18 Jun 2019 0:15 GMT+0

8 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -792.3 bp -17.3 bp 433.7 bp
Ukraine -784.0 bp -294.0 bp -50.0 bp
Turkey -383.0 bp -119.0 bp -240.0 bp
Egypt -95.3 bp -58.9 bp -36.7 bp
Cyprus -20.9 bp -78.3 bp 73.4 bp
Mexico -17.4 bp -29.0 bp -24.0 bp
Hong Kong -8.8 bp -14.7 bp -13.0 bp
Bahrain 0.0 bp 0.0 bp 247.0 bp
Czech Republic 1.8 bp -9.4 bp 8.3 bp
Canada 5.3 bp -5.8 bp -25.9 bp
Japan 7.4 bp -2.5 bp -2.4 bp
South Korea 11.4 bp 1.9 bp 2.0 bp
Taiwan 14.5 bp 4.5 bp 1.5 bp
Iceland 18.1 bp 2.1 bp 0.7 bp
United States 22.1 bp -1.7 bp -18.2 bp
Philippines 23.2 bp 14.2 bp 8.2 bp
Singapore 24.6 bp 6.0 bp -27.2 bp
United Kingdom 24.7 bp 3.0 bp -8.3 bp
Norway 26.7 bp -0.1 bp -1.6 bp
Thailand 30.5 bp 1.0 bp 8.0 bp
Russia 34.0 bp 23.0 bp 17.0 bp
Australia 35.3 bp 4.0 bp -10.5 bp
China 36.4 bp 19.4 bp 29.3 bp
Switzerland 37.5 bp 4.1 bp -13.4 bp
Germany 44.4 bp 8.6 bp -6.0 bp
New Zealand 45.5 bp 11.5 bp -4.0 bp
Malaysia 46.3 bp 21.6 bp 10.9 bp
Latvia 48.8 bp 17.5 bp 5.0 bp
Morocco 50.1 bp 5.5 bp 3.8 bp
Denmark 50.2 bp 11.3 bp -4.4 bp
Bangladesh 53.0 bp -12.0 bp 59.0 bp
Slovakia 56.9 bp 8.1 bp 0.8 bp
Netherlands 60.2 bp 14.8 bp -7.9 bp
Sweden 64.6 bp 8.9 bp -11.6 bp
Bulgaria 64.8 bp 12.1 bp 5.8 bp
Qatar 67.0 bp 25.1 bp 8.4 bp
Finland 68.0 bp 14.8 bp 5.5 bp
Austria 68.1 bp 23.6 bp -13.2 bp
India 69.3 bp 48.6 bp 13.1 bp
France 71.2 bp 17.0 bp -4.1 bp
Belgium 74.3 bp 14.5 bp -2.3 bp
Lithuania 75.0 bp 30.0 bp 10.0 bp
Pakistan 75.9 bp -72.3 bp 27.5 bp
Slovenia 76.8 bp 20.1 bp -25.6 bp
Ireland 77.9 bp 14.0 bp 1.5 bp
Poland 82.8 bp 38.7 bp 12.9 bp
Spain 87.6 bp 21.6 bp 1.5 bp
Malta 88.3 bp 17.0 bp 5.5 bp
Chile 89.0 bp 36.0 bp 2.0 bp
Indonesia 90.1 bp 41.0 bp 34.7 bp
Portugal 95.5 bp 31.4 bp -1.0 bp
Namibia 96.1 bp 44.4 bp 2.7 bp
Sri Lanka 100.0 bp 55.0 bp 95.0 bp
Romania 109.3 bp 64.3 bp 33.7 bp
Croatia 115.8 bp 24.2 bp 14.5 bp
Vietnam 117.7 bp 39.7 bp 27.8 bp
Israel 130.0 bp 56.1 bp -1.6 bp
Greece 134.8 bp 18.3 bp 6.1 bp
Jordan 155.0 bp 48.5 bp 30.9 bp
Colombia 167.2 bp 93.0 bp 25.5 bp
Brazil 177.5 bp 127.0 bp 20.0 bp
South Africa 185.0 bp 88.5 bp -16.6 bp
Mauritius 185.6 bp 78.3 bp -12.2 bp
Italy 192.5 bp 111.6 bp 35.7 bp
Nigeria 194.3 bp 183.0 bp -91.3 bp
Kenya 200.0 bp 75.0 bp 63.7 bp
Botswana 209.9 bp 84.9 bp 76.9 bp
Hungary 216.0 bp 106.0 bp 38.0 bp
Serbia 233.0 bp 42.0 bp 25.0 bp
Uganda 310.0 bp 220.0 bp 248.0 bp
Perù 351.9 bp 153.8 bp 51.3 bp

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