Last Update: 12 Jul 2020 10:15 GMT+0

3 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Slovakia -2080.5 bp -2101.2 bp -700.4 bp
Argentina -100.0 bp -37.5 bp 583.0 bp
Ukraine 0.0 bp 0.0 bp -75.0 bp
Lithuania 10.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Japan 15.5 bp 2.8 bp 2.8 bp
Taiwan 20.0 bp 10.0 bp 3.3 bp
Germany 22.9 bp 2.7 bp -9.5 bp
Sweden 24.0 bp 9.0 bp 3.0 bp
Denmark 24.0 bp 9.0 bp 3.0 bp
United Kingdom 25.9 bp 3.6 bp -7.3 bp
Canada 26.3 bp 7.0 bp 1.4 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Switzerland 28.9 bp 9.4 bp -11.2 bp
Finland 33.0 bp 12.4 bp 4.1 bp
Netherlands 33.3 bp 7.2 bp -7.3 bp
Austria 36.4 bp 8.8 bp -4.4 bp
Morocco 40.7 bp 22.3 bp 7.1 bp
Hong Kong 41.7 bp 14.0 bp -3.3 bp
France 47.1 bp 8.9 bp -5.5 bp
Norway 47.8 bp 16.0 bp 6.4 bp
Belgium 48.0 bp 13.0 bp -7.7 bp
United States 48.6 bp 14.7 bp 0.5 bp
Bulgaria 50.7 bp 35.7 bp 11.9 bp
Ireland 51.0 bp 12.4 bp -0.4 bp
Slovenia 51.8 bp 12.1 bp -3.2 bp
Malta 55.6 bp 16.5 bp 0.9 bp
Israel 58.1 bp 22.2 bp 2.5 bp
Singapore 61.8 bp 23.5 bp 4.3 bp
Australia 62.4 bp 14.4 bp 1.5 bp
South Korea 62.5 bp 35.0 bp 20.3 bp
New Zealand 67.9 bp 15.7 bp 5.3 bp
Malaysia 72.1 bp 12.1 bp -6.3 bp
China 73.4 bp 42.0 bp 17.0 bp
Croatia 77.3 bp 49.2 bp 28.6 bp
Thailand 78.3 bp 29.0 bp -4.1 bp
Cyprus 80.1 bp 37.4 bp 11.7 bp
Philippines 82.9 bp 46.9 bp 9.8 bp
Romania 83.0 bp 41.5 bp 20.7 bp
Czech Republic 86.2 bp 32.7 bp -29.8 bp
Uganda 88.1 bp 201.1 bp 253.1 bp
Bangladesh 89.5 bp 26.0 bp 141.0 bp
Portugal 90.2 bp 38.0 bp -48.3 bp
Spain 91.2 bp 23.7 bp -4.7 bp
Egypt 93.1 bp 49.8 bp 43.7 bp
Greece 93.2 bp 19.1 bp 6.3 bp
Qatar 102.9 bp 30.9 bp 10.3 bp
Mexico 105.9 bp 22.1 bp 10.1 bp
Italy 119.6 bp 61.3 bp 32.9 bp
Poland 126.1 bp 64.7 bp 7.3 bp
Russia 127.0 bp 62.5 bp 49.0 bp
Iceland 128.6 bp 56.0 bp 18.6 bp
Botswana 131.4 bp 113.6 bp 65.7 bp
Serbia 134.5 bp 69.0 bp -3.6 bp
Mauritius 140.9 bp 94.4 bp 35.3 bp
Jordan 158.1 bp 112.0 bp -57.7 bp
India 164.7 bp 72.7 bp 48.7 bp
Sri Lanka 165.0 bp 98.0 bp 50.3 bp
Hungary 166.2 bp 70.2 bp 35.8 bp
Pakistan 183.6 bp 107.6 bp 23.5 bp
Indonesia 191.5 bp 118.0 bp 66.8 bp
Vietnam 215.6 bp 115.4 bp 20.7 bp
Kenya 222.6 bp 100.5 bp 242.0 bp
Chile 231.0 bp 59.0 bp -3.0 bp
Colombia 232.8 bp 102.8 bp 15.7 bp
Turkey 244.0 bp 177.5 bp 116.0 bp
Brazil 294.0 bp 196.5 bp 93.5 bp
Bahrain 364.7 bp 164.7 bp -14.8 bp
Perù 364.8 bp 137.1 bp 5.5 bp
South Africa 452.0 bp 278.0 bp 65.4 bp
Namibia 508.6 bp 186.3 bp 64.8 bp
Nigeria 579.2 bp 245.5 bp -256.4 bp
Zambia 1900.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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