Last Update: 22 Oct 2019 20:15 GMT+0

8 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -927.9 bp -3793.7 bp 2998.7 bp
Ukraine -408.0 bp -153.0 bp 63.5 bp
Pakistan -74.4 bp -53.2 bp -74.0 bp
Egypt -35.9 bp -14.4 bp -7.2 bp
Hong Kong -13.7 bp -16.7 bp -16.8 bp
Canada -9.9 bp -8.9 bp -10.1 bp
Nigeria -6.4 bp -10.1 bp -89.5 bp
Mexico 5.5 bp -12.0 bp -13.2 bp
Czech Republic 10.3 bp -23.9 bp -6.2 bp
Japan 11.0 bp -2.6 bp 0.0 bp
Iceland 11.1 bp 3.0 bp 1.0 bp
Taiwan 14.5 bp 4.5 bp 1.5 bp
Singapore 15.3 bp 3.1 bp -11.1 bp
Thailand 16.1 bp 2.5 bp -6.8 bp
Norway 16.4 bp 5.8 bp -8.1 bp
United States 16.7 bp -1.1 bp 1.4 bp
United Kingdom 17.8 bp -3.6 bp -12.0 bp
Switzerland 26.3 bp 9.6 bp -12.6 bp
Turkey 27.0 bp 107.0 bp -12.0 bp
South Korea 27.8 bp 11.3 bp 6.7 bp
Germany 30.5 bp 2.9 bp -0.9 bp
Malaysia 33.2 bp 15.9 bp 3.2 bp
Russia 35.0 bp 10.5 bp 2.5 bp
Australia 35.5 bp 2.3 bp 0.8 bp
Denmark 40.1 bp 12.8 bp 1.3 bp
Slovakia 40.2 bp 23.2 bp 7.7 bp
Latvia 41.4 bp 13.6 bp 2.5 bp
Netherlands 41.9 bp 7.3 bp 1.1 bp
Lithuania 42.4 bp 16.7 bp 5.5 bp
Croatia 43.3 bp 5.7 bp 1.1 bp
Sweden 44.5 bp 14.1 bp 1.6 bp
Bangladesh 46.5 bp 30.0 bp 79.0 bp
New Zealand 47.3 bp 15.2 bp 4.9 bp
China 47.5 bp 24.1 bp 11.5 bp
Austria 47.6 bp 15.5 bp -0.3 bp
Qatar 48.5 bp 6.9 bp 2.3 bp
Finland 48.9 bp 11.4 bp 2.2 bp
Morocco 49.6 bp 5.6 bp 11.5 bp
Poland 50.0 bp 25.5 bp 33.6 bp
Malta 50.9 bp 8.0 bp 5.1 bp
Slovenia 55.9 bp 16.8 bp -6.3 bp
Belgium 56.4 bp 22.0 bp -2.6 bp
France 57.2 bp 18.8 bp -2.0 bp
Ireland 59.4 bp 17.3 bp 6.0 bp
Cyprus 61.6 bp 17.3 bp -1.6 bp
Greece 64.5 bp -11.5 bp -3.9 bp
Spain 67.5 bp 20.5 bp 6.7 bp
Bulgaria 67.6 bp 25.3 bp 11.9 bp
Israel 70.9 bp 16.6 bp 2.6 bp
Romania 75.0 bp 50.0 bp 25.0 bp
Portugal 76.4 bp 33.4 bp -11.9 bp
Philippines 77.2 bp 38.2 bp 39.9 bp
Indonesia 105.3 bp 50.7 bp 35.0 bp
India 107.4 bp 69.4 bp 10.8 bp
Vietnam 115.5 bp 12.9 bp 17.9 bp
Italy 116.7 bp 42.6 bp 8.1 bp
Serbia 120.0 bp 67.5 bp 14.8 bp
Chile 122.0 bp 57.0 bp -3.0 bp
Mauritius 128.1 bp 72.0 bp 41.3 bp
Colombia 144.9 bp 73.9 bp 22.0 bp
Perù 160.2 bp 61.4 bp 20.5 bp
South Africa 173.3 bp 75.8 bp 36.3 bp
Brazil 177.1 bp 122.1 bp 37.9 bp
Hungary 177.5 bp 78.5 bp 20.6 bp
Jordan 180.2 bp 68.1 bp 24.7 bp
Sri Lanka 183.5 bp 140.8 bp 79.1 bp
Kenya 183.7 bp 80.3 bp 26.8 bp
Namibia 194.0 bp 86.7 bp 40.9 bp
Uganda 215.6 bp 226.2 bp 348.9 bp
Botswana 220.0 bp 87.2 bp 50.3 bp
Bahrain 393.1 bp 147.4 bp 32.9 bp

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