Last Update: 23 Aug 2019 4:15 GMT+0

9 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -1448.2 bp -1508.5 bp 840.5 bp
Egypt -137.3 bp -95.0 bp -50.6 bp
Hong Kong -57.0 bp -52.0 bp -25.8 bp
Nigeria -38.0 bp -34.5 bp -133.9 bp
Mexico -21.7 bp -31.5 bp -32.5 bp
Canada -18.1 bp -13.7 bp -12.9 bp
Czech Republic -1.0 bp -25.4 bp 3.7 bp
Pakistan -0.5 bp 30.6 bp -42.4 bp
United States 0.3 bp -11.4 bp -15.8 bp
United Kingdom 0.6 bp -9.6 bp -6.7 bp
Iceland 1.5 bp 1.0 bp 0.4 bp
Norway 4.7 bp -2.8 bp -12.5 bp
Slovakia 5.0 bp -8.5 bp -2.8 bp
Japan 5.7 bp -3.4 bp -3.1 bp
Thailand 10.0 bp 2.5 bp -7.0 bp
South Korea 11.4 bp 6.5 bp 4.0 bp
Singapore 13.2 bp 4.2 bp -13.2 bp
Taiwan 15.0 bp 4.0 bp 1.3 bp
Latvia 15.8 bp 4.5 bp 0.0 bp
Switzerland 16.1 bp 2.8 bp -5.4 bp
Malaysia 17.5 bp 7.1 bp 3.8 bp
Australia 21.2 bp -4.7 bp -14.2 bp
Germany 21.2 bp -2.1 bp -6.3 bp
Denmark 24.8 bp 6.5 bp -10.6 bp
Russia 30.0 bp 13.0 bp 11.0 bp
Netherlands 31.8 bp 4.5 bp -0.7 bp
New Zealand 32.5 bp 7.5 bp -7.0 bp
Lithuania 35.5 bp 10.5 bp 3.5 bp
Sweden 36.0 bp -3.3 bp -15.7 bp
Austria 36.3 bp 7.0 bp -8.8 bp
Finland 39.4 bp 3.2 bp -0.4 bp
Slovenia 39.8 bp 8.5 bp -50.3 bp
Qatar 40.9 bp 16.2 bp 5.4 bp
Belgium 41.0 bp 4.2 bp -0.2 bp
France 41.2 bp 4.9 bp -7.8 bp
China 41.4 bp 28.1 bp 10.8 bp
Malta 44.7 bp 4.1 bp 3.1 bp
Poland 47.5 bp 22.3 bp 23.4 bp
Morocco 49.6 bp 5.5 bp 2.5 bp
Philippines 50.4 bp 25.9 bp 24.8 bp
Cyprus 50.8 bp 12.8 bp -1.6 bp
Bulgaria 52.7 bp 29.0 bp 12.7 bp
Ireland 55.0 bp 7.8 bp -2.3 bp
Turkey 63.0 bp 21.0 bp -143.0 bp
Spain 66.1 bp 21.9 bp -1.0 bp
Greece 66.4 bp -15.7 bp -5.2 bp
India 67.5 bp 48.2 bp 6.1 bp
Croatia 70.0 bp 10.9 bp 8.6 bp
Portugal 76.3 bp 31.1 bp -6.6 bp
Israel 77.5 bp 23.3 bp -1.4 bp
Chile 81.0 bp 40.0 bp -30.0 bp
Romania 84.0 bp 43.0 bp 25.0 bp
Indonesia 85.6 bp 26.2 bp 18.4 bp
Bangladesh 90.0 bp 38.0 bp 2.0 bp
Serbia 112.0 bp 70.0 bp 23.0 bp
Mauritius 119.5 bp 61.7 bp 25.7 bp
Sri Lanka 120.0 bp 102.0 bp 70.0 bp
Colombia 123.9 bp 54.4 bp 14.5 bp
Italy 129.5 bp 74.4 bp 11.1 bp
Vietnam 139.5 bp 39.3 bp 6.3 bp
Brazil 154.5 bp 109.5 bp 42.0 bp
Hungary 163.0 bp 79.0 bp 21.0 bp
South Africa 165.5 bp 70.0 bp 2.6 bp
Jordan 175.4 bp 66.1 bp 23.9 bp
Namibia 180.8 bp 66.3 bp 22.2 bp
Perù 191.9 bp 100.5 bp 33.5 bp
Kenya 210.0 bp 110.9 bp 20.5 bp
Uganda 215.0 bp 190.0 bp 170.0 bp
Botswana 228.0 bp 103.0 bp 67.9 bp
Bahrain 349.3 bp 131.0 bp 47.6 bp
Ukraine 520.0 bp 195.0 bp -2.0 bp

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