Last Update: 10 Dec 2019 1:15 GMT+0

8 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -5044.4 bp -1091.7 bp 5425.7 bp
Ukraine -560.0 bp -210.0 bp -6.5 bp
Pakistan -103.7 bp -96.8 bp -45.0 bp
Egypt -51.4 bp -45.0 bp 33.4 bp
Canada -8.0 bp -6.6 bp -4.8 bp
Hong Kong -7.4 bp -8.0 bp -9.1 bp
Mexico -1.6 bp -11.3 bp -11.9 bp
Czech Republic 0.2 bp -32.2 bp 3.8 bp
Japan 10.6 bp 1.7 bp 2.0 bp
Norway 13.5 bp -2.0 bp 8.8 bp
Switzerland 17.6 bp 5.8 bp -15.3 bp
Taiwan 18.3 bp 10.0 bp 3.3 bp
United Kingdom 18.7 bp -0.8 bp -10.3 bp
Lithuania 19.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
United States 20.2 bp 3.9 bp 6.4 bp
Singapore 21.8 bp 6.9 bp -6.3 bp
New Zealand 24.2 bp -1.2 bp -0.4 bp
South Korea 27.2 bp 9.5 bp 5.4 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Thailand 31.2 bp 12.1 bp -13.1 bp
Germany 38.5 bp 10.4 bp -2.6 bp
Malaysia 38.5 bp 17.3 bp 0.3 bp
Australia 39.3 bp 1.0 bp -6.5 bp
Turkey 40.0 bp 28.0 bp 47.5 bp
Sweden 40.0 bp 15.0 bp 5.0 bp
China 42.5 bp 18.3 bp 11.0 bp
Iceland 43.2 bp 23.0 bp 7.6 bp
Denmark 44.0 bp 16.5 bp 5.5 bp
Netherlands 46.6 bp 12.3 bp 6.0 bp
Austria 51.5 bp 16.3 bp 3.4 bp
Qatar 53.7 bp 11.4 bp 3.8 bp
Croatia 55.1 bp 11.7 bp 2.0 bp
Ireland 55.4 bp 12.9 bp 3.9 bp
Slovakia 56.3 bp 33.1 bp 11.0 bp
Finland 57.0 bp 21.4 bp 7.1 bp
Poland 58.5 bp 35.3 bp 46.0 bp
Russia 58.5 bp 39.5 bp 5.0 bp
Malta 59.6 bp 16.2 bp 3.6 bp
Belgium 61.1 bp 24.3 bp -0.2 bp
Cyprus 63.1 bp 16.1 bp -1.4 bp
Morocco 64.4 bp 18.3 bp 1.3 bp
France 64.5 bp 21.9 bp -5.0 bp
Bulgaria 65.0 bp 26.4 bp 12.2 bp
Slovenia 67.2 bp 18.6 bp -0.6 bp
Israel 68.8 bp 17.9 bp 1.9 bp
Philippines 83.9 bp 40.2 bp 38.5 bp
Spain 88.5 bp 35.8 bp 5.0 bp
Bangladesh 89.0 bp 67.0 bp 77.0 bp
Serbia 90.0 bp 95.0 bp 15.1 bp
Greece 92.6 bp 12.0 bp 4.0 bp
India 93.3 bp 66.0 bp 17.0 bp
Portugal 95.5 bp 44.1 bp -3.7 bp
Mauritius 105.9 bp 42.9 bp 37.9 bp
Romania 112.0 bp 55.8 bp 13.2 bp
Italy 135.5 bp 55.3 bp 21.2 bp
Nigeria 147.9 bp 103.1 bp 273.1 bp
Botswana 151.5 bp 113.5 bp 65.9 bp
Indonesia 152.6 bp 91.9 bp 56.7 bp
Colombia 159.7 bp 86.5 bp 27.8 bp
Hungary 162.5 bp 91.5 bp 15.5 bp
South Africa 167.0 bp 60.5 bp 40.0 bp
Brazil 167.0 bp 117.5 bp 58.6 bp
Vietnam 169.0 bp 26.7 bp 27.2 bp
Chile 171.0 bp 88.0 bp 29.0 bp
Sri Lanka 173.0 bp 137.3 bp 35.1 bp
Jordan 181.0 bp 68.1 bp 24.0 bp
Perù 206.6 bp 72.5 bp 24.2 bp
Uganda 210.7 bp 210.6 bp 288.1 bp
Kenya 218.9 bp 128.0 bp 51.6 bp
Namibia 232.2 bp 88.8 bp 20.5 bp
Bahrain 407.7 bp 173.7 bp -2.6 bp
Zambia 1650.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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