Last Update: 24 Jan 2020 23:15 GMT+0

8 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -4603.4 bp -650.7 bp 5866.7 bp
Ukraine -508.0 bp -190.5 bp -34.0 bp
Pakistan -136.1 bp -111.3 bp -45.4 bp
Canada -12.5 bp -10.3 bp -13.6 bp
Egypt -8.2 bp -13.2 bp -3.4 bp
Czech Republic -5.4 bp -22.2 bp -16.1 bp
Hong Kong -4.8 bp -9.8 bp -21.0 bp
Mexico 1.0 bp -9.1 bp -8.5 bp
Norway 2.5 bp -5.8 bp -1.0 bp
Switzerland 2.7 bp -2.1 bp -7.9 bp
Japan 10.9 bp 0.7 bp 0.2 bp
United Kingdom 14.7 bp -2.9 bp -6.6 bp
Taiwan 15.8 bp 5.0 bp 1.7 bp
Lithuania 19.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
United States 19.1 bp 1.4 bp -4.9 bp
Iceland 19.3 bp 8.0 bp 2.6 bp
Malaysia 20.0 bp -1.2 bp -10.0 bp
Thailand 24.2 bp 8.0 bp -5.1 bp
Singapore 25.2 bp 4.8 bp -10.3 bp
Turkey 27.0 bp 45.5 bp 17.5 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Germany 28.0 bp 3.0 bp 0.2 bp
South Korea 29.0 bp 13.0 bp 9.5 bp
Australia 32.5 bp 3.0 bp -10.1 bp
Denmark 35.0 bp 13.1 bp 4.4 bp
Netherlands 37.0 bp 8.5 bp -2.1 bp
New Zealand 38.1 bp 13.1 bp 4.4 bp
Sweden 39.0 bp 14.6 bp 4.9 bp
Austria 43.3 bp 12.8 bp -1.3 bp
Morocco 45.5 bp 8.5 bp 3.7 bp
Philippines 46.0 bp 32.1 bp 30.2 bp
Finland 48.0 bp 18.0 bp 6.0 bp
Ireland 49.1 bp 14.5 bp 6.9 bp
Belgium 49.6 bp 16.3 bp -1.5 bp
France 50.6 bp 12.9 bp -1.9 bp
Croatia 52.7 bp 13.2 bp 4.6 bp
China 54.4 bp 24.8 bp 24.5 bp
Malta 56.8 bp 15.2 bp 4.0 bp
Slovakia 60.2 bp 38.7 bp 12.9 bp
Russia 63.0 bp 36.0 bp 14.5 bp
Slovenia 64.3 bp 13.4 bp -2530.9 bp
Bulgaria 66.1 bp 27.2 bp 13.4 bp
Qatar 68.3 bp 27.3 bp 9.1 bp
Israel 70.3 bp 17.1 bp 3.7 bp
Poland 73.7 bp 39.7 bp 29.3 bp
Portugal 73.7 bp 33.4 bp 8.8 bp
Cyprus 79.8 bp 6.5 bp -0.6 bp
Spain 80.4 bp 30.5 bp -2.4 bp
Romania 81.5 bp 45.4 bp 13.3 bp
Serbia 84.5 bp 54.5 bp 19.7 bp
India 87.5 bp 67.6 bp 25.5 bp
Bangladesh 92.0 bp 62.5 bp 31.0 bp
Greece 92.4 bp 6.2 bp 2.1 bp
Botswana 92.6 bp 90.3 bp 63.7 bp
Sri Lanka 117.9 bp 74.3 bp 38.0 bp
Indonesia 124.8 bp 58.6 bp 22.5 bp
Italy 130.0 bp 54.5 bp 19.8 bp
Colombia 143.9 bp 80.8 bp 24.4 bp
Chile 144.0 bp 57.0 bp -3.0 bp
Uganda 146.8 bp 200.8 bp 235.8 bp
Mauritius 161.3 bp 82.5 bp 51.8 bp
Kenya 175.7 bp 96.1 bp 78.4 bp
Vietnam 179.6 bp 56.2 bp 12.0 bp
Hungary 180.2 bp 99.7 bp 14.8 bp
Brazil 184.1 bp 132.5 bp 39.7 bp
Perù 194.2 bp 65.8 bp 21.9 bp
South Africa 212.0 bp 120.5 bp 50.9 bp
Namibia 216.9 bp 69.9 bp -5.4 bp
Jordan 220.9 bp 108.0 bp -15.9 bp
Bahrain 379.7 bp 157.5 bp 7.4 bp
Nigeria 388.9 bp 265.3 bp 261.4 bp
Zambia 1625.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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