Last Update: 19 Jan 2022 18:15 GMT+0

3 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left
S&P
Rating
Yield Curves
Totally Inverted Partially Inverted Minimally Inverted
AAA
AA
A
Czech Republic
Belgium
Spain
BBB
BB
B
Russia
Turkey
Brazil
South Africa
Other Mauritius

Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left
Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Czech Republic -59.1 bp -35.4 bp 6.0 bp
Russia -28.0 bp -10.0 bp 6.0 bp
Turkey -8.0 bp 109.5 bp 98.5 bp
Japan 21.3 bp 4.2 bp 1.5 bp
Taiwan 31.0 bp 11.5 bp 3.8 bp
Brazil 32.5 bp 26.8 bp -91.6 bp
United Kingdom 36.1 bp 15.7 bp 12.9 bp
New Zealand 45.3 bp 31.2 bp 55.3 bp
Morocco 47.3 bp 32.7 bp 15.7 bp
China 56.4 bp 25.6 bp 15.3 bp
Chile 57.0 bp 43.0 bp 99.0 bp
Germany 57.1 bp 23.9 bp 8.4 bp
Norway 58.3 bp 46.0 bp 32.0 bp
Hungary 58.9 bp 30.9 bp 20.5 bp
Canada 59.8 bp 42.2 bp 21.6 bp
South Korea 64.7 bp 41.1 bp 46.3 bp
Mexico 67.2 bp 59.9 bp 40.0 bp
Switzerland 70.6 bp 41.7 bp 0.9 bp
Croatia 70.7 bp 29.3 bp 12.1 bp
Bulgaria 75.1 bp 37.6 bp 7.8 bp
Netherlands 76.2 bp 34.3 bp 3.1 bp
United States 81.2 bp 59.1 bp 48.1 bp
Austria 85.7 bp 41.0 bp 2.6 bp
Ireland 86.4 bp 36.6 bp 10.7 bp
Singapore 89.5 bp 68.3 bp 50.5 bp
France 90.1 bp 38.7 bp 11.2 bp
Egypt 92.2 bp 50.4 bp 67.0 bp
Iceland 94.0 bp 53.3 bp 17.8 bp
Belgium 94.4 bp 37.9 bp -1.4 bp
Hong Kong 98.4 bp 56.0 bp 43.3 bp
Malta 101.4 bp 41.4 bp 10.9 bp
Poland 104.5 bp 90.5 bp 8.8 bp
Israel 109.6 bp 58.1 bp 12.9 bp
Australia 110.3 bp 77.4 bp 24.5 bp
Slovakia 112.5 bp 60.4 bp 20.1 bp
Portugal 113.7 bp 39.3 bp 0.4 bp
Slovenia 117.0 bp 66.9 bp 1.2 bp
Spain 121.9 bp 65.5 bp -1.8 bp
Cyprus 123.5 bp 60.0 bp 19.4 bp
Serbia 130.8 bp 7.8 bp 30.0 bp
Qatar 132.2 bp 69.0 bp 34.1 bp
Malaysia 138.2 bp 95.3 bp 50.0 bp
Romania 144.9 bp 102.4 bp 17.6 bp
Vietnam 145.4 bp 31.3 bp 6.1 bp
Italy 150.2 bp 61.1 bp 36.6 bp
Thailand 153.1 bp 88.5 bp 17.6 bp
India 161.4 bp 107.3 bp 64.3 bp
Jordan 178.0 bp 63.6 bp 22.7 bp
Greece 181.7 bp 86.6 bp 28.9 bp
Pakistan 200.7 bp 184.8 bp 183.9 bp
Ukraine 224.0 bp 84.0 bp 94.0 bp
PerĂ¹ 249.0 bp 130.1 bp 43.4 bp
Indonesia 257.9 bp 133.5 bp 42.7 bp
Philippines 259.3 bp 155.3 bp 87.3 bp
Kenya 271.3 bp 150.0 bp 85.4 bp
Bangladesh 278.0 bp 181.0 bp 131.0 bp
Sri Lanka 287.5 bp 223.6 bp 52.5 bp
Mauritius 310.7 bp 158.9 bp -10.9 bp
Bahrain 327.6 bp 143.5 bp 44.9 bp
Uganda 331.3 bp 234.6 bp 54.1 bp
Colombia 366.5 bp 307.9 bp 138.2 bp
South Africa 419.5 bp 260.0 bp -18.6 bp
Nigeria 520.3 bp 361.2 bp 194.3 bp
Namibia 527.1 bp 16.7 bp 84.0 bp

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