Last Update: 1 Apr 2020 2:15 GMT+0

5 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

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Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

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Country Long vs Short Term
10Y vs 2Y Spread
Mid vs Short Term
5Y vs 2Y Spread
Short Term
2Y vs 1Y Spread
Venezuela -9252484.8 bp -9248972.4 bp -3082990.8 bp
Argentina -5532.5 bp -4030.5 bp 6344.0 bp
Ukraine -492.0 bp -184.5 bp 16.5 bp
Slovakia -482.4 bp -521.0 bp -173.6 bp
Pakistan -256.6 bp -232.7 bp -72.6 bp
Japan 14.9 bp 1.1 bp 0.4 bp
Taiwan 15.5 bp 2.0 bp 0.7 bp
Hong Kong 16.4 bp 4.6 bp -3.9 bp
Denmark 17.0 bp 6.4 bp 2.1 bp
Lithuania 20.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Germany 21.6 bp 3.6 bp 1.4 bp
United Kingdom 23.8 bp 9.1 bp 0.8 bp
Canada 27.4 bp 16.7 bp 8.5 bp
Latvia 27.5 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp
Sweden 28.0 bp 10.5 bp 3.5 bp
Switzerland 28.6 bp 7.7 bp 9.0 bp
Ireland 38.7 bp 18.7 bp -4.1 bp
United States 41.4 bp 12.8 bp 6.1 bp
Russia 42.5 bp 32.0 bp 33.5 bp
Qatar 43.1 bp 42.6 bp 14.2 bp
Morocco 44.7 bp 25.8 bp 5.8 bp
South Korea 45.2 bp 22.0 bp 7.2 bp
Bulgaria 45.5 bp 3.3 bp -2.8 bp
Netherlands 45.6 bp 16.3 bp -4.0 bp
Australia 47.8 bp 16.8 bp -0.7 bp
Finland 48.0 bp 18.0 bp 6.0 bp
Singapore 53.5 bp 22.0 bp -6.5 bp
Cyprus 54.1 bp 16.1 bp 63.1 bp
Austria 58.0 bp 27.6 bp -1.0 bp
France 58.3 bp 25.0 bp -11.8 bp
Belgium 58.9 bp 30.3 bp -5.0 bp
Philippines 61.1 bp 30.0 bp 96.3 bp
Norway 63.3 bp 27.7 bp 2.0 bp
Thailand 66.0 bp 20.6 bp -3.7 bp
Malaysia 66.6 bp 39.1 bp 6.4 bp
Malta 68.8 bp 23.8 bp 5.5 bp
China 71.6 bp 33.5 bp 14.8 bp
Israel 72.8 bp 9.7 bp 13.5 bp
Slovenia 74.6 bp 32.9 bp 10.8 bp
Iceland 75.6 bp 31.0 bp 10.4 bp
New Zealand 76.9 bp 37.5 bp 12.5 bp
Czech Republic 77.0 bp 33.0 bp 2.0 bp
Egypt 77.7 bp 53.9 bp 85.5 bp
Poland 79.7 bp 38.1 bp 9.7 bp
Bangladesh 84.0 bp 29.5 bp 39.0 bp
Vietnam 89.0 bp 18.1 bp 2.0 bp
Portugal 90.3 bp 47.4 bp 13.4 bp
Mexico 90.7 bp 15.4 bp 5.9 bp
Spain 94.7 bp 43.9 bp -7.6 bp
Greece 96.7 bp 56.5 bp 18.8 bp
Croatia 96.9 bp 37.0 bp 15.9 bp
Serbia 103.0 bp 61.0 bp 25.9 bp
India 109.6 bp 53.6 bp 14.5 bp
Italy 118.9 bp 51.1 bp 21.0 bp
Sri Lanka 128.1 bp 83.5 bp 82.9 bp
Hungary 147.9 bp 54.9 bp 16.0 bp
Romania 150.0 bp 50.0 bp 59.5 bp
Jordan 153.0 bp 48.7 bp 32.2 bp
Indonesia 182.7 bp 114.9 bp 45.9 bp
Uganda 189.7 bp 232.9 bp 165.2 bp
Turkey 200.0 bp 158.5 bp 62.0 bp
Mauritius 201.7 bp 115.6 bp 20.2 bp
Botswana 222.2 bp 147.7 bp 10.2 bp
Kenya 265.8 bp 136.1 bp 117.7 bp
Chile 266.0 bp 85.0 bp 15.0 bp
Colombia 273.3 bp 177.3 bp 41.6 bp
Brazil 321.8 bp 224.4 bp 79.2 bp
Perù 330.9 bp 107.7 bp 35.9 bp
South Africa 400.5 bp 291.5 bp 195.4 bp
Bahrain 464.5 bp 246.7 bp -14.5 bp
Namibia 480.0 bp 222.1 bp 43.4 bp
Nigeria 523.1 bp 408.7 bp 276.0 bp
Zambia 1775.0 bp 0.0 bp 0.0 bp

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