Inverted Yield Curves

Last Update: 2 Oct 2023 8:15 GMT+0

29 countries have an inverted yield curve.

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term bonds have a lower yield than short-term ones.

An inverted yield curve is often considered a predictor of economic recession.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left

S&P Rating	Yield Curves
S&P Rating	Totally Inverted	Partially Inverted	Minimally Inverted
A to AAA	Iceland Qatar Chile Canada Denmark Sweden United States United Kingdom New Zealand Singapore Israel Germany Norway Czech Republic Switzerland Ireland Latvia Hong Kong Netherlands	France Austria Lithuania Finland Belgium Spain	Slovenia Australia
B to BBB	Turkey Kazakhstan Hungary Mexico Croatia India	Perù	Egypt Portugal Cyprus Bahrain Mauritius Serbia Brazil Kenya
Other	Ukraine Pakistan Sri Lanka Russia

Detailed domestic spreads

The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity.

If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve.

Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread.

In the following table:
Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case.
Cells with yellow background shows a flat yield case.

If data are not all visible, swipe table left

Country	Long vs Short Term 10Y vs 2Y Spread	Mid vs Short Term 5Y vs 2Y Spread	Short Term 2Y vs 1Y Spread
Ukraine	-929.3 bp	-495.2 bp	-466.0 bp
Pakistan	-458.5 bp	-329.7 bp	-109.9 bp
Sri Lanka	-313.5 bp	-119.4 bp	8.1 bp
Turkey	-265.0 bp	-132.0 bp	288.5 bp
Kazakhstan	-245.5 bp	-119.2 bp	-46.2 bp
Iceland	-204.8 bp	-165.9 bp	-55.3 bp
Qatar	-158.7 bp	-59.0 bp	-76.0 bp
Chile	-150.0 bp	-140.0 bp	-73.0 bp
Hungary	-116.0 bp	-101.0 bp	-28.4 bp
Mexico	-101.1 bp	-65.9 bp	-48.5 bp
Canada	-86.5 bp	-64.1 bp	-35.3 bp
Denmark	-63.3 bp	-72.0 bp	15.5 bp
Sweden	-56.5 bp	-44.3 bp	-35.1 bp
United States	-44.1 bp	-41.2 bp	-39.7 bp
United Kingdom	-42.9 bp	-37.9 bp	-10.9 bp
New Zealand	-41.6 bp	-45.5 bp	3.4 bp
Singapore	-35.5 bp	-41.4 bp	-6.3 bp
Israel	-35.5 bp	-34.2 bp	-22.2 bp
Germany	-32.7 bp	-40.4 bp	-47.5 bp
Croatia	-20.6 bp	-34.6 bp	-275.7 bp
Russia	-20.0 bp	-44.0 bp	-328.5 bp
Norway	-18.3 bp	-7.8 bp	-4.3 bp
Czech Republic	-12.4 bp	-25.7 bp	-529.2 bp
Switzerland	-11.7 bp	-16.5 bp	-62.3 bp
Ireland	-10.1 bp	-26.5 bp	9.4 bp
Latvia	-8.7 bp	-2.7 bp	-0.3 bp
India	-4.6 bp	-2.3 bp	28.1 bp
Hong Kong	-4.1 bp	-26.8 bp	-50.2 bp
Netherlands	-3.9 bp	-21.3 bp	-31.7 bp
France	1.8 bp	-24.0 bp	-37.8 bp
Austria	1.9 bp	-25.0 bp	-20.7 bp
Lithuania	2.0 bp	-12.3 bp	-4.1 bp
Finland	12.4 bp	-9.6 bp	-10.8 bp
Belgium	12.6 bp	-26.2 bp	-30.0 bp
South Korea	15.3 bp	6.6 bp	11.9 bp
Slovenia	20.7 bp	13.9 bp	-25.7 bp
Bangladesh	21.0 bp	7.5 bp	78.0 bp
Taiwan	22.5 bp	15.0 bp	5.0 bp
Philippines	27.1 bp	14.7 bp	14.8 bp
Malta	33.2 bp	12.9 bp	3.9 bp
Egypt	34.3 bp	85.4 bp	-109.8 bp
Spain	38.0 bp	-8.5 bp	-29.5 bp
Australia	40.5 bp	6.7 bp	-13.9 bp
Portugal	42.0 bp	2.8 bp	-36.0 bp
China	49.1 bp	27.6 bp	8.7 bp
Cyprus	53.7 bp	8.3 bp	-9.6 bp
Bahrain	58.4 bp	21.9 bp	-0.9 bp
Thailand	59.2 bp	20.2 bp	9.2 bp
Malaysia	62.1 bp	38.9 bp	16.1 bp
Slovakia	62.4 bp	26.8 bp	8.9 bp
Romania	66.8 bp	31.8 bp	22.1 bp
Japan	70.7 bp	27.6 bp	9.4 bp
Greece	71.1 bp	18.9 bp	9.5 bp
Morocco	75.3 bp	34.2 bp	19.9 bp
Perù	76.1 bp	-31.2 bp	-10.4 bp
Italy	78.4 bp	19.0 bp	4.5 bp
Colombia	78.7 bp	19.1 bp	10.0 bp
Indonesia	82.1 bp	44.6 bp	14.1 bp
Mauritius	82.4 bp	30.7 bp	-1.7 bp
Poland	90.4 bp	23.1 bp	8.2 bp
Vietnam	93.8 bp	3.5 bp	6.4 bp
Bulgaria	121.9 bp	50.7 bp	15.0 bp
Serbia	124.7 bp	35.0 bp	-69.6 bp
Brazil	137.4 bp	104.3 bp	-66.6 bp
Nigeria	191.1 bp	138.4 bp	26.2 bp
Namibia	208.5 bp	102.4 bp	38.6 bp
South Africa	228.3 bp	86.8 bp	29.0 bp
Kenya	325.3 bp	502.8 bp	-162.0 bp
Uganda	572.4 bp	478.7 bp	76.2 bp
Zambia	1123.1 bp	821.7 bp	1.8 bp

Detailed domestic spreads

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