Russia Government Bonds - Yields Curve

COUNTRY • SUMMARY
RUSSIA

The Russia 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 16.298%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.

The yield spread between Russia 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is -489.8 basis points (bp), reflecting the difference in yields between long-term and short-term debt.
Typically, long-term bonds carry higher yields than short-term ones.
Current observation: Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.

Russia Central Bank Rate stands at 21.00%, following the most recent adjustment in October 2024.

According to Standard & Poor's agency, the Russia credit rating is NR.

The current quotation for Russia 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 13,775.17 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 100.00%.

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Russia Yield Curve

A Yield Curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and different maturities of debt for a specific borrower, often government bonds. It typically plots yields on the y-axis and maturities on the x-axis, ranging from short-term to long-term bonds.

The shape of the yield curve gives investors insights into market expectations for interest rates, economic growth, and inflation. A normal yield curve, where long-term rates are higher than short-term, suggests economic growth, while an inverted curve, where short-term rates are higher, can indicate an upcoming recession.

Russia Yield Curve
Russia Government Bonds
12 December 2024

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Residual
Maturity
Annualized Yield Constant Maturity Zero Coupon Price Capital
Growth
of 1 Unit
Last
Update
Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Last Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M
1 month 22.943% +127.4 bp n.a. n.a. 98.29 -0.09 % n.a. n.a. 1.017 12 Dec
2 months 22.896% +121.5 bp n.a. n.a. 96.62 -0.17 % n.a. n.a. 1.034 12 Dec
3 months 22.843% +115.7 bp n.a. n.a. 94.99 -0.23 % n.a. n.a. 1.052 12 Dec
6 months 22.662% +99.8 bp n.a. n.a. 90.29 -0.41 % n.a. n.a. 1.107 12 Dec
1 year 22.220% +73.0 bp +409.0 bp +853.0 bp 81.82 -0.60 % -3.34 % -6.98 % 1.222 12 Dec
2 years 21.196% +37.6 bp +284.6 bp +667.6 bp 68.08 -0.63 % -4.64 % -10.71 % 1.468 12 Dec
3 years 20.171% +18.9 bp +304.1 bp +743.6 bp 57.62 -0.48 % -7.41 % -17.44 % 1.735 12 Dec
5 years 18.485% +8.8 bp +267.5 bp +551.0 bp 42.82 -0.37 % -10.79 % -21.20 % 2.335 12 Dec
7 years 17.334% +14.8 bp +182.4 bp +482.4 bp 32.66 -0.88 % -10.40 % -25.47 % 3.061 12 Dec
10 years 16.298% +30.3 bp +132.8 bp +366.8 bp 22.09 -2.60 % -10.86 % -27.43 % 4.526 12 Dec
15 years 15.452% +49.9 bp +23.2 bp +258.7 bp 11.59 -6.31 % -2.93 % -28.81 % 8.630 12 Dec
20 years 15.019% +60.1 bp +25.9 bp +262.9 bp 6.09 -9.91 % -4.40 % -37.02 % 16.420 12 Dec
Last Update: 12 Dec 2024, 15:23 GMT+0

Russia Yield History

This table presents the historical values of the yield curve, with data points collected at the end of each year.

By analyzing these values over time, one can observe trends and shifts in economic sentiment and monetary policy that impact investor expectations about future interest rates and economic growth.

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Government Bonds Yield (%)
Spread (bp)
Period 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30Y 10Y - 2Y
Dec 2024 22.943 22.843 22.662 22.220 21.196 20.171 18.485 17.334 16.298 n.a. -489.8
Dec 2023 n.a. n.a. n.a. 14.400 15.090 12.760 12.870 12.240 12.300 n.a. -279.0
Dec 2022 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11.420 8.590 9.385 9.490 9.850 10.340 n.a. 175.0
Dec 2021 8.370 8.690 9.120 7.745 8.205 8.325 8.350 8.475 8.420 n.a. 21.5
Dec 2020 4.200 4.220 4.250 3.535 4.370 4.440 5.350 5.730 5.905 n.a. 153.5
Dec 2019 6.100 6.120 6.100 4.810 5.635 5.680 6.020 6.180 6.225 n.a. 59.0
Dec 2018 7.670 7.770 8.050 7.500 7.860 8.270 8.450 8.560 8.730 n.a. 87.0
Dec 2017 7.550 7.540 7.520 6.560 6.850 6.980 7.230 7.240 7.590 n.a. 74.0
Dec 2016 10.030 10.050 10.000 8.670 8.250 8.370 8.310 n.a. 8.380 n.a. 13.0
Dec 2015 11.710 11.790 11.800 9.850 10.160 10.020 9.930 n.a. 9.740 n.a. -42.0

Russia Yield Analysis

Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.

The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).

Internal Spread on Key Maturities:
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2Y vs 1Y -102.4 bp Yield Curve is flat in Short-Term Maturities
5Y vs 2Y -271.1 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
10Y vs 2Y -489.8 bp Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Spread vs Spread vs
Central Bank
Rate (21.00%)
3 months 1 year 2 years 5 years
10 years 16.298% -470.2bp
5 years 18.485%
-251.5bp
2 years 21.196%
19.6bp
1 year 22.220%
122.0bp
3 months 22.843%
184.3bp

Russia Credit Ratings

A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation).

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Rating Agency Rating Outlook Last Update Action
Standard & Poor's NR - 11 Apr 2022 rating downgrade
Moody's Investors Service NR - 19 Apr 2022 rating downgrade
Fitch Ratings NR - 19 Apr 2022 rating downgrade
DBRS - -

Russia Interest Rates

A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.

Interest Rates Value
Central Bank Rate 21.00%

Russia Credit Default Swaps

The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.

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Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 13,775.17 0.00 % 0.00 % 0.00 % 100.00 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.
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Russia 10Y Bond Yield Spread

The Russia 10Y Government Bond has a 16.298% yield.

A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .

Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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Russia 10Y vs Current Spread Chg 1M Chg 6M Chg 12M Compare
Countries
vs Japan 10Y 1525.6 bp +26.7 bp +126.2 bp +334.2 bp
vs China 10Y 1447.1 bp +57.3 bp +181.8 bp +451.6 bp
vs Germany 10Y 1411.9 bp +47.7 bp +168.2 bp +371.0 bp
vs Spain 10Y 1352.7 bp +63.9 bp +195.4 bp +413.4 bp
vs France 10Y 1335.0 bp +52.8 bp +153.9 bp +349.1 bp
vs Canada 10Y 1314.9 bp +44.8 bp +159.7 bp +395.1 bp
vs Italy 10Y 1300.0 bp +68.1 bp +194.6 bp +439.3 bp
vs United States 10Y 1199.1 bp +42.8 bp +133.2 bp +356.7 bp
vs Australia 10Y 1196.1 bp +60.5 bp +124.9 bp +361.8 bp
vs United Kingdom 10Y 1189.4 bp +42.5 bp +104.2 bp +325.0 bp
vs India 10Y 945.3 bp +36.5 bp +149.5 bp +409.8 bp
vs Brazil 10Y 269.4 bp -62.6 bp -17.1 bp +97.0 bp

Russia Government Bonds Prices

Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.

The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
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Residual
Maturity
Yield Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates Fx
0% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
20 years 15.019% 6.09 12.34 24.85 37.35 49.86 62.36
15 years 15.452% 11.59 17.31 28.75 40.20 51.64 63.08
10 years 16.298% 22.09 26.87 36.43 45.99 55.55 65.11
7 years 17.334% 32.66 36.55 44.32 52.09 59.85 67.62
5 years 18.485% 42.82 45.92 52.10 58.29 64.48 70.66
3 years 20.171% 57.62 59.72 63.93 68.13 72.33 76.53
2 years 21.196% 68.08 69.59 72.60 75.61 78.62 81.63
1 year 22.220% 81.82 82.64 84.27 85.91 87.55 89.18
Maturity Date 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
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